Trace Elements Market Analysis

I，Analysis of non-ferrous metals

Week-on-week: Month-on-month:

1）Zinc sulfate

  ① Raw materials: Zinc hypooxide: The supply shortage situation has eased somewhat, but manufacturers’ quotations remain relatively firm, and the cost side of enterprises continues to be under pressure.

Zinc network price background: The U.S. non-farm payroll data was lower than expected, geopolitical risks rose, and copper, aluminum and precious metal prices hit new highs, driving zinc prices to their highest level in recent years.

Weak fundamentals: Domestic zinc smelting profits have recovered as prices rose, but consumer orders in areas such as galvanizing and die-casting have been mediocre due to environmental warnings and corporate holidays, and zinc ingot inventories have continued to accumulate, with insufficient support from fundamentals. Overall, with the gradual digestion of macro sentiment and the lack of fundamental support, the average price of zinc is expected to be around 24,500 yuan per ton next week.

② Sulfuric acid: The market price remained stable this week.

This week, producers’ operating rate was 79% and capacity utilization rate was 69%, remaining flat compared with the previous week. Capacity utilization reached 69%, up 4 percentage points from the previous week. The demand side remains strong, with major manufacturers’ orders scheduled until early February. Backed by high costs of core raw materials and abundant pending orders, the current market price of zinc sulfate remains firm. To avoid tight delivery before the Spring Festival, customers are advised to purchase and stock up in advance at an appropriate time.

2）Manganese sulfate

  In terms of raw materials: ① The supply of manganese ore remains tight, prices remain firm, and sulfuric acid prices remain high, providing a stable support for the raw material side.

② Sulfuric acid prices remain stable at a high level.

This week, the operating rate of manganese sulfate producers was 81%, up 10% from the previous week; Capacity utilization was 59%, up 8% from the previous week. Major manufacturers’ orders are scheduled until mid-February. Costs and demand form the core support for current prices. In the short term, supported by strong raw material costs, manganese sulfate prices are expected to remain firm at a high level.

Based on the analysis of the order volume of enterprises and raw material factors, the short-term performance of manganese sulfate remains firm. It is recommended that customers purchase according to their needs.

3）Ferrous sulfate

  Raw materials: Obvious upstream constraints: High inventories in the titanium dioxide industry and off-season sales have led some manufacturers to suspend production; Significant diversion of raw materials: Stable demand in the lithium iron phosphate industry continues to divert raw material supply; Chain transmission: The discontinuation of the main product directly leads to a simultaneous reduction in the production of the by-product ferrous sulfate.

This week, the factory’s operating rate was 60%, down 20% from the previous week; Capacity utilization remained at 19 per cent, down 4 per cent from the previous week, with manufacturers’ capacity not fully unleashed and tight market supply remaining.

It is expected that in the medium to short term, the market will continue the pattern of “weak supply and strong demand”, and the price of ferrous sulfate will remain firm at a high level, supported by the slow recovery of capacity and the continued tightness of raw materials. Buy and stock up at the right time based on your own inventory situation.

4）Copper sulfate/basic copper chloride

The current market is in the stage of the “raw material-dominated – cost-passed” cycle. Copper prices remain high. Weakened macro support: Strong U.S. jobs data and Fed maintaining tightening expectations weigh on copper prices. Policy support emerges: State Grid’s 4-trillion-yuan investment plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan provides support for long-term demand. Fundamentals are easing: Overall supply in the market is loose, and a pullback in copper prices is expected to stimulate essential purchasing.

Price range forecast: Copper grid prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 102,000-103,000 yuan per ton next week

Customers are advised to take advantage of their inventories to stock up when copper prices fall back to a relatively low level, so as to ensure supply while controlling costs.

5）Magnesium sulfate/magnesium oxide

  In terms of raw materials: Currently, sulfuric acid in the north is stable at a high level.

Magnesium oxide and magnesium sulfate prices have risen. The impact of magnesite resource control, quota restrictions and environmental rectification has led to many enterprises producing based on sales. Light-burned magnesium oxide enterprises shut down on Friday due to capacity replacement policies and the increase in sulfuric acid prices, and the prices of magnesium sulfate and magnesium oxide rose in the short term. It is recommended to stock up appropriately.

6）Calcium iodate

The price of refined iodine rose slightly, the supply of calcium iodate was tight, some iodide manufacturers were shut down or limited production, and the supply of iodide was tight. It is expected that the tone of a long-term steady and small increase in iodide will remain unchanged. It is recommended to stock up appropriately.

7）Sodium selenite

In terms of raw materials: The prices of non-ferrous metals continue to rise. The overall market for crude selenium and selenium dioxide is shrinking in volume but stable in price. Pre-holiday stockpiling is cautious. The support from high-end demand is stronger than that in traditional fields. Capital speculation leads to a shortage of raw materials due to the upstream non-shipment of crude selenium and selenium dioxide. The inventory of manufacturers is low and the price is raised. Buy on demand.

8）Cobalt chloride

Last week, the cobalt market was weak and consolidated, with ternary battery production, installation and sales growing slowly, and demand growing slowly; Dr Congo government introduced export quotas, Congo Jin Xingui cobalt exporters should be prepaid 10% mining royalties, luoyang molybdenum cobalt, cobalt export recovery in Congo (gold), Dr Congo cobalt clearance formally, cobalt, supply shortages, cobalt, cost rising expectations, cobalt miners keep cobalt export quotas in 2025, Dr Congo, cobalt salt prices, The price of lithium cobalt oxide has risen, and the positive impact on the cobalt market remains; The strong consolidation of international cobalt prices has weakened the positive impact on the domestic cobalt market, but the negative impact remains. Overall, the upward momentum of the cobalt market has weakened and downward pressure remains. Keep an eye on changes in the market and stock up appropriately.

9）Cobalt salts/potassium chloride/potassium carbonate/calcium formate/iodide

1. Cobalt: In the short term, cobalt prices are expected to rise more easily than fall, but the increase may be limited by the absorption capacity on the demand side. Prices may face adjustment pressure if overseas cobalt intermediate arrivals increase or downstream demand falls short of expectations; Prices are expected to continue to rise if supply remains tight and demand releases steadily.

2. Potassium chloride: In the short term, the “tight supply” situation in the potassium chloride market is unlikely to improve significantly, and prices are likely to remain in a pattern of high volatility. In the long term, the determination of the large contract price of potash fertilizer in 2026 provides bottom support for the market price, but the slow follow-up on the demand side may limit the upward momentum of the price.

3. The stalemate in supply and demand in the formic acid market remains unchanged, there is significant pressure to digest inventory, and downstream demand is unlikely to show substantial improvement in the short term. In the short term, the price will still be mainly fluctuating and weak, and the demand for calcium formate is average. It is recommended to pay attention to the formic acid market and purchase as needed

4. Iodide prices remained stable this week compared to last week.