I，Analysis of non-ferrous metals

Week-on-week: Month-on-month:

1）Zinc sulfate

  ① Raw materials: Zinc hypooxide: Supply tightness persists and manufacturers' quotations remain firm.

Zinc Network price background: On the macro front, geopolitical risks have intensified due to Israel's surprise attack on Iran, leading to market risk avoidance. However, according to data from Shanghai Metals Network, China will import about 86,000 physical tons of zinc concentrate from Iran in 2025, accounting for 1.62% of total imports. The impact of the geopolitical conflict on zinc prices is limited.

In terms of fundamentals, domestic inventories of zinc ingots rose by 59,000 tons to 219,900 tons during the Spring Festival, and weekly inventories of zinc ingots at smelters increased by more than 38,000 tons, with a significant increase in overall inventories. It is expected that consumption will resume after the Lantern Festival. Consumption expectations, along with low processing fees for zinc concentrate, low overseas inventories of zinc ingots and geopolitical risks, The average price of zinc is expected to fluctuate around 24,700 yuan per ton next week.

② Sulfuric acid: Prices are rising in some areas

Zinc sulfate was operating at 53 percent this week (down 5 percent from before the holiday), and capacity utilization at 30 percent (down 21 percent from before the holiday), with little pressure on the supply side in the short term, providing some support for prices. Due to the double impact of fluctuations in metal zinc prices and expectations of rising prices of raw materials such as sulfuric acid and zinc hypooxide, there is a high possibility of product price increases.

It is recommended to make supplementary purchases in a timely manner in light of current production plans and inventory digestion during the Spring Festival to avoid potential cost increases in the future.

 

2）Manganese sulfate

  Raw materials: ① Strong cost support: The price of manganese ore remains firm, providing bottom support for manganese sulfate

② Sulfuric acid prices have risen again compared to before the holiday.

Supply side: This week producers' operating rate is 30% (down 35% from before the holiday), capacity utilization rate is 21% (down 29% from before the holiday).

The price of manganese sulfate is expected to remain firm in the short term. Based on the analysis of enterprise order volume and raw material factors, manganese sulfate is expected to be bullish in the short term. Customers are advised to increase their inventories appropriately.

 

3）Ferrous sulfate

  In terms of raw materials: Production cuts in the titanium dioxide industry have led to a contraction in the supply of its by-product ferrous sulfate, while existing sources have been diverted by the lithium iron phosphate industry, further squeezing the supply of raw materials in traditional sectors. The continuous shortage of raw material ferrous heptahydrate has significantly constrained the production of ferrous sulfate.

The operating rate is 60% (up 20% from pre-holiday), and the capacity utilization rate is 17% (up 6% from pre-holiday). Although the operating rate has rebounded significantly, the overall supply in the market remains tight due to abundant orders on hand, and the pressure on spot circulation has not yet been relieved.

Supported by both low capacity utilization and tight supply of raw materials, ferrous sulfate prices are expected to remain high in the short term. Downstream enterprises are advised to maintain reasonable inventory levels in line with production plans to deal with possible supply fluctuations caused by tight raw materials and ensure production continuity.

 

4）Copper sulfate/basic copper chloride

On a macro level: The Middle East is ravaged by war and boosted by optimistic demand sentiment: The paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz has hindered the shipping of copper ore, and transportation costs have risen sharply, further squeezing supply resilience. Despite China's copper inventories reaching a 10-year peak after the Spring Festival (ShFE inventories soared 44 percent to 391,500 tons), jpmorgan predicts a 130,000-ton supply gap in the global copper market in 2026, with major ore disturbances (such as in South America and Africa) not easing and long-term demand rigidity becoming more prominent. In the short term, supported by the situation in the Middle East and expectations of domestic two sessions policies, copper prices are likely to remain volatile at a high level. In the medium and long term, with the supply gap resonating with technology demand, the copper price center is expected to move up, but vigilance is needed for the risk of a pullback after the easing of geopolitical conflicts. The mismatch between supply and demand will continue to intensify, and copper prices are expected to remain high in 2026.

Fundamentals: Imported supplies continue to arrive on the supply side, and domestic supplies arrive steadily; On the demand side, downstream production is gradually resuming and consumption is picking up slightly. In terms of inventories, as of February 26, copper social inventories in major regions across the country rose by 4.56 percent compared with Tuesday.

  Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 101,000 to 103,000 yuan per ton next week.

Copper sulfate prices are significantly affected by copper price fluctuations. It is suggested that downstream enterprises, in light of their own inventory situation, flexibly control the production rhythm and purchase at the right time to cope with the operating pressure brought by cost fluctuations.

5）Magnesium sulfate/magnesium oxide

  In terms of raw materials: Currently, sulfuric acid in the north is stable at a high level.

Due to the post-holiday control of magnesite resources, quota restrictions and environmental rectification, many enterprises are producing based on sales. Light-burned magnesia enterprises have been forced to suspend production for transformation due to capacity replacement policies, and short-term productivity is unlikely to increase significantly. The price of sulfur has risen and the price of sulfuric acid has gone up, providing favorable support for the price of magnesium sulfate. It is recommended to stock up appropriately.

6）Calcium iodate

The price of refined iodine rose slightly, the supply of calcium iodate was tight, some iodide manufacturers were shut down or limited production, and the supply of iodide was tight. It is expected that the tone of a long-term steady and small increase in iodide will remain unchanged. It is recommended to stock up appropriately.

 

7）Sodium selenite

In terms of raw materials: The prices of non-ferrous metals continue to rise. The overall market volume of crude selenium and selenium dioxide is shrinking while prices are stable. The supply of crude selenium and selenium dioxide in the market is tight. Capital speculation leads to a shortage of raw materials due to the upstream non-shipment of crude selenium and selenium dioxide. The inventory of manufacturers is low and prices are rising. Buy on demand.

8）Cobalt chloride

  The spot market for cobalt salts was lackluster last week, with prices remaining stable. Most smelters have just resumed operations, and the market remains mainly in a wait-and-see mood. On the demand side, logistics have not fully resumed in the first week after the holiday, and downstream enterprises are also adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Actual transactions are relatively limited, and overall market trading is sluggish. With supply tightening in phases and raw material cost support still in place, cobalt salt prices are expected to resume their upward trend. It is recommended to increase inventories appropriately.

 

9）Potassium chloride/potassium carbonate/calcium formate/iodide

1. Potassium chloride: The price of potassium chloride has remained stable recently. The port inventory rose to around 2.8 million tons. Demand was weak after the holiday. Earlier, key potash enterprises signed long-term supply guarantee agreements with key downstream customers, but the actual supply was temporarily limited. With the spring season approaching, there won't be much sales pressure on potassium chloride in the short term, but the supply has been tight recently and the price has risen slightly. It is recommended to replenish according to demand.

2. The domestic formic acid market is in a stable sideways consolidation phase, with stable prices, balanced supply and demand, and controllable inventories. The maintenance plans for large-scale facilities in the north in March and the expected recovery of downstream demand will be key factors influencing the market trend, but the implementation of maintenance and changes in market supply and demand will still need to be closely watched. Calcium formate prices remain stable this week, and it is recommended to stock up based on demand.

3. Iodide prices are stable this week compared to last week.