Trace Elements Market Analysis

I，Analysis of non-ferrous metals

Week-on-week: Month-on-month:

	Units	Week 3 of March	Week 4 of March	Week-on-week changes	Average price in February	Average price before March 27	Month-on-month change	Current price as of March 31
Shanghai Metals Market # Zinc ingots	Yuan/ton	23,250	22,830	↓420	24,540	23,653	↓887	23,430
Shanghai Metals Network # Electrolytic copper	Yuan/ton	97,966	94,604	↓3,362	101,507	98,708	↓2,799	95,600
Shanghai Metals Australia Mn46% manganese ore	Yuan/ton	43.97	45.09	↑1.12	42.45	43.90	↑1.45	45.45
The price of imported refined iodine by Business Society	Yuan/ton	635,000	635,000	—	635,000	635,000	—	635,000
Shanghai Metals Market Cobalt Chloride (co ≥ 24.2%)	Yuan/ton	115,750	115,750	—	116,000	115,788	↓212	115,750
Shanghai Metals Market Selenium Dioxide	Yuan/kilogram	172.5	172.5	—	158.20	172.00	↑13.8	172.5
Capacity utilization rate of titanium dioxide manufacturers	%	72.94	72.75	↓0.19	72.12	72.70	↑0.58

Sulfuric acid: The US-Iran negotiations have stalled, and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Global crude oil supply is tight, and international oil prices have risen sharply. Sulfuric acid has remained stable at a high level.

1）Zinc sulfate

① Raw materials: Zinc hypooxide: Production capacity has picked up, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm is high, and the short-term transaction coefficient is unlikely to be reduced.

Zinc network price background: Macroscopically, the geopolitical deadlock between the US and Iran and hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve provide support for the US dollar and intensify concerns over high inflation. Market interest rate cuts are expected to cool, which is bearish for metal prices.

On the fundamentals, domestic consumption is weak and inventories have slightly declined. As of April 23, inventories in seven locations of Shanghai Metals Market were 259,900 tons, down only 0.01 tons from last week. On the outside market, although explicit inventories of LME zinc have decreased, many goods have been locked up and actual supply is loose. But expectations of maintenance at domestic smelters remain, and supply cuts limit the decline.

Overall, the average price of zinc is expected to be 23,900 yuan per ton next week, affected by macroeconomic and fundamental negative factors

② Sulfuric acid: High price this week.

Factory production is tight. The peak demand season continues, but the number of inquiries for orders has dropped, and prices remain high and firm. Customers who have not purchased are advised to lock in their orders in a timely manner in accordance with the inventory rhythm.

2）Manganese sulfate

In terms of raw materials: ① The price of sulfuric acid is firm at a high level. It is expected that the price of sulfuric acid will gradually decline from a high level in May. Attention should be paid to the divergence of regional trends.

At present, factory production is tight, orders until the end of May are supported by high costs, and there are no signs of a short-term price drop. We need to keep an eye on the impact of the price trend on the cost side. Customers should make purchases based on their current inventory consumption and production plans.

3）Ferrous sulfate

The capacity utilization rate of titanium dioxide manufacturers at the raw material end has slightly rebounded, but heptahydrate ferrous has been significantly affected by the cross-industry diversion in the lithium iron phosphate industry, and the growth in the inflow of monohydrate ferrous has been limited. The tight situation remains unchanged.

Sulfuric acid: High for the week.

Low capacity on the supply side.

Backed by both raw material shortages and low capacity utilization rates, prices remain high in the short term.

There is no possibility of a price correction for the time being. In line with production plans, maintain reasonable inventory levels.

Titanium dioxide production capacity utilization rate

4）Copper sulfate/basic copper chloride

Macroscopically: Expectations of Fed rate hikes rise, global sulfuric acid shortages provide price support, domestic terminal destocking continues before May Day, spot replenishment demand is solid. The copper market is currently in a typical "strong reality, weak expectation" game. The tightness on the supply side has reached a "heart-stopping" level: the situation in the Middle East has led to a sharp increase in sulfuric acid prices, and even the extreme situation where China's sulfuric acid exports to Chile dropped to zero in March has occurred, and hydrometallurgical capacity is under great pressure. Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain at a low negative value, and the shortage at the ore end has become a consensus. Overall, at the macro level, the standoff between the US and Iran and expectations of Fed rate hikes have suppressed market risk appetite, but at the fundamental level, extremely tight ore supply and soaring costs have provided a solid bottom for copper prices. Copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term.

The upper side is constrained by the fear of high spot prices and a strong dollar, while the lower side is propped up by a shortage of mines and geopolitical risks. There is no basis for a one-sided surge or plunge. For the future, short-term copper prices are likely to fluctuate widely within a range.

It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate in the near future and remain at 100,000-105,000 yuan per ton

1) Current price trend

Shanghai Metals Market Electrolytic Copper

2) Copper price trend over the past five years (2021-2026) : Summary of the five-year trend: Upward - pullback - sideways - breakout again - High consolidation. It is currently at its highest point in nearly five years.

5) Magnesium sulfate/magnesium oxide

In terms of raw materials: Currently, sulfuric acid in the north is stable at a high level.

Due to the post-holiday control of magnesite resources, quota restrictions and environmental rectification, many enterprises are producing based on sales. Light-burned magnesia enterprises have been forced to suspend production for transformation due to capacity replacement policies, and short-term productivity is unlikely to increase significantly. Due to the war, sulfur prices rose and sulfuric acid prices went up, providing favorable support for magnesium sulfate prices. It is recommended to stock up appropriately.

6）Calcium iodate

Production costs are rising but downstream acceptance is limited, market demand is poor, calcium iodate supply is tight, some iodide manufacturers have suspended production or limited production, iodide supply is tight, the tone of a long-term steady and slight increase in iodide is expected to remain unchanged. It is recommended to stock up appropriately.

7）Sodium selenite

In terms of raw materials: The prices of non-ferrous metals continue to rise. The overall market volume of crude selenium and selenium dioxide is shrinking while prices are stable. The supply of crude selenium and selenium dioxide in the market is tight. Capital speculation leads to a shortage of raw materials due to the upstream non-shipment of crude selenium and selenium dioxide. The inventory of manufacturers is low and prices are rising. Buy on demand.

8）Cobalt chloride

In terms of cobalt salt supply, leading companies still maintain firm quotations, and the bottom support is relatively solid. On the demand side, downstream players remain cautious and wait-and-see, while market inquiries are relatively active, but substantial transaction incretions are insufficient. The market still lacks clear impetus to break the price deadlock. The cobalt market sentiment was largely the same as the previous week, with bulls and bears still in a tug-of-war. Buy on demand.

9）Potassium chloride/potassium carbonate/calcium formate/iodide

1.Potassium chloride: Due to the international situation, the prices of fertilizers such as nitrogen and phosphorus are high and volatile. Potassium fertilizer is in the off-season of demand and has fluctuated due to the war. In the near future, pay attention to the international situation and policy orientation. The supply guarantee strategy will not slacken. In the near future, stability should be the main focus.
2.Formic acid prices have dropped slightly, production enterprises have a large inventory, and demand is weak. Calcium formate prices are falling at a lower cost. It is recommended to stock up according to demand.
3. Iodide prices remained stable this week compared to last week.