Trace Elements Market Analysis

	Units	Week 3 of March	Week 4 of March	Week-on-week changes	Average price in February	Average price before March 27	Month-on-month change	Current price as of March 31
Shanghai Metals Market # Zinc ingots	Yuan/ton	23,250	22,830	↓420	24,540	23,653	↓887	23,430
Shanghai Metals Network # Electrolytic copper	Yuan/ton	97,966	94,604	↓3,362	101,507	98,708	↓2,799	95,600
Shanghai Metals Australia Mn46% manganese ore	Yuan/ton	43.97	45.09	↑1.12	42.45	43.90	↑1.45	45.45
The price of imported refined iodine by Business Society	Yuan/ton	635,000	635,000	-	635,000	635,000	-	635,000
Shanghai Metals Market Cobalt Chloride (co ≥ 24.2%)	Yuan/ton	115,750	115,750	-	116,000	115,788	↓212	115,750
Shanghai Metals Market Selenium Dioxide	Yuan/kilogram	172.5	172.5	-	158.20	172.00	↑13.8	172.5
Capacity utilization rate of titanium dioxide manufacturers	%	72.94	72.75	↓0.19	72.12	72.70	↑0.58

1）Zinc sulfate

① Raw materials: Zinc hypooxide: Due to environmental impact, some rotary kilns in the northern region have not resumed production yet, the market supply remains in a tight balance, and production costs are difficult to be reduced.

Zinc network price background: Macroeconomics Next week the US will release ADP employment figures, ISM manufacturing PMI, and core PCE price index. These data will determine the pace of the Fed's rate cuts. The market expects to strengthen the Fed's hawkish stance, further delay the expectation of rate cuts, and even restart the discussion of rate hikes; Coupled with the uncertainty of war in the Middle East supporting the strengthening of the US dollar index, it will also be bearish for zinc prices.

On the fundamentals, downstream consumption of zinc ingots is gradually recovering, and domestic zinc ingot inventories continue to be reduced. As of March 26, the total inventory of zinc ingots in the seven SMM regions dropped to 249,500 tons. The gradual recovery of the consumption end provides bottom support for zinc prices.

Overall, it is expected that zinc prices will continue to fall next week, with an average price of around 22,500 yuan per ton expected next week.

② Sulfuric acid: The price broke through the post-New Year high this week

Operating rate 79% (up 11% week-on-week), capacity utilization rate 65% (up 9% week-on-week), supply has picked up.

The price of zinc sulfate monohydrate is driven up by the rising cost of sulfuric acid during the peak demand season. Customers are advised to lock in orders in a timely manner based on their production plans and inventory.

2）Manganese sulfate

In terms of raw materials: ① Manganese ore prices remain high, sulfuric acid prices continue to rise and are still expected to increase

Due to the sharp increase in sulfur prices, there is still room for further growth in the future, providing a solid bottom support for product prices.

Supply side: Operating rate drops to 75% (-9% month-on-month), capacity utilization rate 56% (-8% month-on-month), orders are abundant, and scheduling has reached mid to late May. Coupled with expectations of rising sulfuric acid prices, prices will continue to rise.

It is recommended that customers lock in orders in a timely manner in light of the current inventory consumption and production plans. This move not only helps to avoid potential upward price risks in the future, but also effectively addresses the pressure of extended delivery cycles due to rising costs.

ew Year high this week

Operating rate 79% (up 11% week-on-week), capacity utilization rate 65% (up 9% week-on-week), supply has picked up.

3）Ferrous sulfate

In terms of raw materials: The supply of raw materials is the core contradiction in the current ferrous sulfate market. The existing supply of heptahydrate ferrous has been diverted by the lithium iron phosphate industry across sectors, further squeezing the supply of raw materials in traditional fields. The continuous tightness at the raw material end has driven up costs.

Due to the continuous instability in the supply of raw material ferrous heptahydrate, quotations rose this week compared with last week despite abundant orders.

The price of ferrous sulfate is expected to remain high in the short term, supported by both low capacity utilization and a shortage of raw materials. Customers are advised to maintain reasonable inventory levels in line with their production plans to ensure stable production.

Titanium dioxide production capacity utilization rate

4）Copper sulfate/basic copper chloride

Macroscopically: Geopolitical risks such as the US-Iran conflict continue to escalate, and the market fears that potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will impact global crude oil supplies. High oil prices have not only pushed up smelting costs (such as sulfuric acid), but also suppressed manufacturing demand, intensifying expectations of a slowdown in global economic growth and thus dampening the outlook for copper consumption.

The copper market in March is undergoing a deep adjustment driven by macro factors. Despite the huge short-term selling pressure brought by the geopolitical conflict and the Fed's policy shift, the supply and demand relationship at the industrial level did not actually deteriorate. Copper prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term, but the downside is expected to be limited.

Shanghai Metals Market Electrolytic Copper

Copper sulfate prices are significantly affected by copper price fluctuations. It is suggested that downstream enterprises, in light of their own inventory situation, flexibly grasp the purchasing rhythm and replenish at the right time to cope with the operating pressure brought by cost fluctuations.

5) Magnesium sulfate/magnesium oxide

In terms of raw materials: Currently, sulfuric acid in the north is stable at a high level.

Due to the post-holiday control of magnesite resources, quota restrictions and environmental rectification, many enterprises are producing based on sales. Light-burned magnesia enterprises have been forced to suspend production for transformation due to capacity replacement policies, and short-term productivity is unlikely to increase significantly. Due to the war, sulfur prices rose and sulfuric acid prices went up, providing favorable support for magnesium sulfate prices. It is recommended to stock up appropriately

6）Calcium iodate

The price of refined iodine rose slightly, the supply of calcium iodate was tight, some iodide manufacturers were shut down or limited production, and the supply of iodide was tight. It is expected that the tone of a long-term steady and small increase in iodide will remain unchanged. It is recommended to stock up appropriately.

7）Sodium selenite

In terms of raw materials: The prices of non-ferrous metals continue to rise. The overall market volume of crude selenium and selenium dioxide is shrinking while prices are stable. The supply of crude selenium and selenium dioxide in the market is tight. Capital speculation leads to a shortage of raw materials due to the upstream non-shipment of crude selenium and selenium dioxide. The inventory of manufacturers is low and prices are rising. Buy on demand.

8）Cobalt chloride

The market sentiment for cobalt chloride has not improved significantly, and the stalemate persists. The willingness of leading companies to hold prices remains firm. However, downstream purchasing sentiment remains conservative, and market inquiries show no sign of recovery. The overall pessimism in downstream demand has led cobalt enterprises to be more cautious in raw material procurement. Actual transactions are still dominated by sporadic replenishment, and the transaction focus remains stable. Overall, the market still lacks the direct impetus to break the deadlock in the short term, and prices will remain stable. It is recommended to buy as needed.

9）Potassium chloride/potassium carbonate/calcium formate/iodide

1. Potassium chloride: The market expects the bulk release volume of potassium chloride to reach 2 million tons. The port inventory of potassium chloride has dropped to around 2.55 million tons. The price of potassium chloride has declined to some extent, while the price of potassium sulfate has continued to rise. Focus on concentrated release capacity in the near future. The global environment. The Middle East is embroiled in ongoing warfare and ground operations are said to have begun, and the impact of the growing situation on the fertilizer market continues to intensify. Under the current special circumstances, fertilizer prices are more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended to pay attention to the quantity of stocks in Hong Kong and policy orientation. Focus on inventory demand.

2. The formic acid market has recently shown a phased feature of "stabilizing and building up strength, slight upward movement, and temporary stabilization and consolidation". The price is likely to remain firm and still has the potential for further increase. It is still necessary to pay attention to changes in supply and demand in the market. Calcium formate prices have risen. It is recommended to stock up according to demand.

3. Iodide prices remained stable this week compared to last week.