Trace Elements Market Analysis

I，Analysis of non-ferrous metals

Week-on-week: Month-on-month:

	Units	Week 4 of April	Week 5 of April	Week-on-week changes	March average price	April average price	Month-on-month change	Current price May 7
Shanghai Metals Market # Zinc ingots	Yuan/ton	24024	23800	↓224	23625	23727	↑102	24090
Shanghai Metals Network # Electrolytic copper	Yuan/ton	102501	102003	↓498	98407	100316	↑1909	102860
Shanghai Metals Network AustraliaMn46% manganese ore	Yuan/ton	45.11	45.11	-	44.04	45.09	↑1.05	45.25
The price of imported refined iodine by Business Society	Yuan/ton	635000	635000	-	635000	635000	-	635000
Shanghai Metals Market Cobalt Chloride(co≥24.2%)	Yuan/ton	115350	115350	-	115784	115531	↓253	115350
Shanghai Metals Market Selenium Dioxide	Yuan/kilogram	172.5	172.5	-	172.10	172.50	↑0.4	172.5
Capacity utilization rate of titanium dioxide manufacturers	%	74.22	74.22	-	72.70	71.78

Sulfuric acid: The average price of sulfuric acid continues to rise.

Recently, the spot prices of sulfur at ports and domestically have continued to rise, directly pushing up the production costs of acid enterprises. The cost pressure on enterprises has been passed down, driving up the ex-factory prices of sulfuric acid in various regions simultaneously. From the supply side, the overall inventory of acid plants across the country is at a low level, and the spot supply is tight; Coupled with the planned shutdown and maintenance of several major acid plants in May, the supply in the subsequent market will be further tightened. On the demand side, downstream titanium dioxide enterprises are about to resume production in a concentrated manner, and market demand is steadily recovering. Supported by multiple favorable factors such as rising raw material prices, tightened supply and recovering demand, the market price trend of sulfuric acid remains strong.

1）Zinc sulfate

① Raw materials: Zinc hypooxide: The transaction coefficient remains high.

Background: Macro: The Fed keeps interest rates unchanged and the dollar strengthens, which is bearish for zinc prices; Fundamentals: Forecast: The average price of zinc next week is 23,600 yuan per ton.

② Sulfuric acid: High price this week.

Factory production is tight. The peak demand season continues, but the number of inquiries for orders has dropped, and prices remain high and firm. Customers who have not purchased are advised to lock in their orders in a timely manner in accordance with the inventory rhythm.

2）Manganese sulfate

① The price of sulfuric acid is high and firm.

At present, factory production is tight, orders are pending until the end of May, costs are high, and there are no signs of a short-term price drop. We need to keep an eye on the impact of the price trend on the cost side. Customers should make purchases based on their current inventory consumption and production plans.

3）Ferrous sulfate

The capacity utilization rate of titanium dioxide producers at the raw material end has slightly rebounded, but ferrous heptahydrate has been significantly affected by cross-industry diversion in the lithium iron phosphate industry, and the inflow of ferrous monohydrate has increased limited, and the tight situation remains unchanged.

Sulfuric acid: High for the week.

Low capacity on the supply side.

Backed by both raw material shortages and low capacity utilization rates, prices remain high in the short term.

There is no possibility of a price correction for the time being. In combination with the production plan, maintain a reasonable inventory level.

Titanium dioxide production capacity utilization rate

4）Copper sulfate/basic copper chloride

Macroscopically: Neutral to warm.

Market expectations of easing geopolitical tensions have risen. It was reported that the White House said it was close to reaching a ceasefire memorandum with Iran, a "stop war" signal that provided short-term support for copper prices. Meanwhile, the release of the April ADP employment data in the US added 109,000 jobs, higher than market expectations, indicating that the labor market remains resilient and further weakening market expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates this year. The upper side is constrained by the fear of high spot prices and a strong dollar, while the lower side is propped up by a shortage of mines and geopolitical risks. There is no basis for a one-sided surge or plunge. For the future, short-term copper prices are likely to fluctuate widely within a range.

1) Current price trend

Shanghai Metals Market Electrolytic Copper

It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate in the near future and remain at 102,400-104,200 yuan per ton

The marginal improvement in macro sentiment, coupled with supply contraction pressure from overseas mines and smelting links, is likely to keep copper prices in a high and volatile pattern in the short term, but beware of the disturbance risks brought by the repeated Middle East situation

2) Copper price trend over the past five years (2021-2026) : Summary of the five-year trend: Upward - pullback - sideways - breakout again - High consolidation. It is currently at its highest point in nearly five years.

5) Magnesium sulfate/magnesium oxide

In terms of raw materials: Currently, sulfuric acid in the north is stable at a high level.

Due to the post-holiday control of magnesite resources, quota restrictions and environmental rectification, many enterprises are producing based on sales. Light-burned magnesia enterprises have been forced to suspend production for transformation due to capacity replacement policies, and short-term productivity is unlikely to increase significantly. Due to the war, sulfur prices rose and sulfuric acid prices went up, providing favorable support for magnesium sulfate prices. It is recommended to stock up appropriately.

6）Calcium iodate

Production costs are rising but downstream acceptance is limited, market demand is poor, calcium iodate supply is tight, some iodide manufacturers have suspended production or limited production, iodide supply is tight, the tone of a long-term steady and slight increase in iodide is expected to remain unchanged. It is recommended to stock up appropriately.

7）Sodium selenite

In terms of raw materials: Crude selenium and selenium dioxide are generally weak and volatile. The supply of by-products from smelting is loose, while the demand for glass and feed downstream is weak, and the transaction volume is low. Raw material costs support the decline is limited, and it is expected to maintain a weak range in the short term. Sodium selenite raw material costs have decreased, and speculation has withdrawn from the price decline

8）Cobalt chloride

The tightening of cobalt quotas in Congo supports raw material costs. Weak recovery in lithium battery demand, short-term cobalt salts fluctuated narrowly, and moderately strengthened with replenishment in May-June. It is recommended to purchase on demand.

9）Potassium chloride/potassium carbonate/calcium formate/iodide

1.Potassium chloride: The port stock of potassium chloride has dropped below 2 million tons, lower than the average of previous years. Due to the international situation, the prices of fertilizers such as nitrogen and phosphorus are high and volatile. Potash is in the off-season of demand and has fluctuated due to the war. In the near term, pay attention to the international situation and the policy orientation that the supply guarantee strategy will not slacken, and the price will rise slightly in the short term. Buy on demand.
2.Formic acid prices continue to fall, producers have more inventory, and demand is weak. Calcium formate prices are falling as costs are reduced. It is recommended to stock up based on demand.
3. Iodide prices remained stable this week compared to last week.