Trace Elements Market Analysis

I，Analysis of non-ferrous metals

Week-on-week: Month-on-month:

Commodity	Units	Week 1 of April	Week 2 of April	Week-on-week changes	March average price	Average price before April 10	Month-on-month change	Current price on April 14
Shanghai Metals Market # Zinc ingots	Yuan/ton	23448	23603	↑155	23625	23563	↓62	23590
Shanghai Metals Network # Electrolytic copper	Yuan/ton	95950	97564	↑1614	98407	97030	↓1377	100965
Shanghai Metals Australia Mn46% manganese ore	Yuan/ton	45.45	45.20	-	44.04	45.31	↑1.27	44.45
The price of imported refined iodine by Business Society	Yuan/ton	635000	635000	-	635000	635000	-	635000
Shanghai Metals Market Cobalt Chloride (co≥24.2%)	Yuan/ton	115750	115750	-	115784	115750	↓34	115650
Shanghai Metals Market Selenium Dioxide	Yuan/kilogram	172.5	172.5	-	172.10	172.50	↑0.4	172.5
Capacity utilization rate of titanium dioxide manufacturers	%	71.9	73.55	↓1.65	72.70	72.73	↑0.03

Sulfuric acid prices rose again this week and are expected to remain high and stable in the short term if raw sulfur prices remain high and the supply side recovers slowly, prices may rise further; But if downstream demand remains weak or the supply side recovers at an accelerated pace, prices may face pressure to pull back.

1）Zinc sulfate

① Raw materials: Zinc hypooxide: Production capacity has picked up, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm is high, and the short-term transaction coefficient is unlikely to be reduced.

Zinc network price background: There is still considerable uncertainty in the Middle East conflict on a macro level, but overall signals of easing have been released.

Fundamentals: The operating levels of downstream industries at the consumer end were lower than the same period last year (the operating rates of zinc plating, die-casting zinc and zinc oxide were 5-10% lower than the same period last year), and social inventories of zinc ingots increased again (as of April 9, the total inventory of zinc ingots in the seven regions was 254,200 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons compared with April 2), exerting pressure on zinc prices from the consumer end.

Based on the overall judgment, zinc prices are expected to fall slightly next week, with an average price of 23,500 yuan per ton

② Sulfuric acid: Price surges again this week.

Plants are operating at 68%, capacity utilization at 63%, and orders are scheduled until the end of April.

The price of zinc sulfate monohydrate is driven up by the rising cost of sulfuric acid during the peak demand season. Customers are advised to lock in orders in a timely manner based on their production plans and inventory.

2）Manganese sulfate

In terms of raw materials: ① Manganese ore prices remain high, sulfuric acid prices continue to rise and are still expected to increase

The operating rate and capacity utilization rate fell again this week. Currently, orders for manganese sulfate monohydrate are abundant. Coupled with the expectation of rising sulfuric acid prices, prices will continue to rise. Customers are advised to lock in orders in a timely manner based on current inventory consumption and production plans.

3）Ferrous sulfate

Raw material side: The supply side remains tight. Affected by environmental protection production restrictions, the decline in titanium dioxide and the by-product output of steel mills, the capacity utilization rate is relatively low (about 23%-40%), inventory is at a historical low, and spot goods are tight.

Sulfuric acid: High for the week.

The demand side has grown significantly, with strong demand in industries such as water treatment and new energy (lithium iron phosphate), high purchasing enthusiasm, and the supply-demand gap continues to widen. High prices of raw materials sulfur and sulfuric acid, strong cost support, have driven up the price of ferrous sulfate. Customers are advised to make reasonable purchases based on their production plans to avoid production being affected by price fluctuations.

Titanium dioxide production capacity utilization rate

4）Copper sulfate/basic copper chloride

Macroeconomics: China's economy was "steady and progressive" in the first quarter, with the manufacturing PMI returning to the expansion zone, sending a clear signal of enhanced economic vitality. The U.S. services PMI unexpectedly cooled to 54.0 in March, showing a weakening expansion momentum, but the stickiness of the core PCE price index (3.0% year-on-year) was like an invisible thread, holding the Fed's nerves. This suggests that the high interest rate environment may last longer, but the market's panic over tightening has temporarily eased.

Supply side: Overseas mine strikes, frequent force majeure, and insufficient global capital expenditure have become a consensus on mine shortages. Domestic copper concentrate processing fees (TC) have hit rock bottom, and smelters' profits have been compressed. Although sulfuric acid earnings provide some buffer, the essence of the raw material shortage remains unchanged.

To sum up: Uncertainties remain at the macro level at present, while fundamental support is relatively strong. The two have not yet formed a clear resonance. Market sentiment tends to be cautious. In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate. For a sustained upward trend, attention should still be paid to the development of the geopolitical situation.

It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate in the near future and remain at 100,000-105,000 yuan per ton

1) Current price trend

Shanghai Metals Market Electrolytic Copper

1) Copper price trend over the past five years (2021-2026): Five-year trend summary: Rise - Pullback - Consolidation - Breakthrough - High-level consolidation. Currently, it is at the highest level in the past five years.

5) Magnesium sulfate/magnesium oxide

In terms of raw materials: Currently, sulfuric acid in the north is stable at a high level.

Due to the post-holiday control of magnesite resources, quota restrictions and environmental rectification, many enterprises are producing based on sales. Light-burned magnesia enterprises have been forced to suspend production for transformation due to capacity replacement policies, and short-term productivity is unlikely to increase significantly. Due to the war, sulfur prices rose and sulfuric acid prices went up, providing favorable support for magnesium sulfate prices. It is recommended to stock up appropriately.

6）Calcium iodate

Production costs are rising but downstream acceptance is limited, market demand is poor, calcium iodate supply is tight, some iodide manufacturers have suspended production or limited production, iodide supply is tight, the tone of a long-term steady and slight increase in iodide is expected to remain unchanged. It is recommended to stock up appropriately.

7）Sodium selenite

In terms of raw materials: The prices of non-ferrous metals continue to rise. The overall market volume of crude selenium and selenium dioxide is shrinking while prices are stable. The supply of crude selenium and selenium dioxide in the market is tight. Capital speculation leads to a shortage of raw materials due to the upstream non-shipment of crude selenium and selenium dioxide. The inventory of manufacturers is low and prices are rising. Buy on demand.

8）Cobalt chloride

The spot price of cobalt salts remained in a sideways consolidation this week. On the supply side, the shortage of raw materials continues. On the demand side, the market sentiment remains sluggish. In the short term, the market is still in the inventory reduction stage, and there is a lack of breakthrough momentum for prices. In the medium to long term, the uncertainty of raw material supply in the Democratic Republic of the Congo provides bottom support on the cost side; Cobalt prices are expected to see a restorative rebound once downstream inventories are effectively reduced and purchasing demand recovers. It is recommended to purchase on demand

9）Potassium chloride/potassium carbonate/calcium formate/iodide

Potassium chloride: The potash fertilizer market has been relatively stable recently. Under the influence of policy pressure, off-season pressure, etc., the price of potassium chloride has rebounded after falling. Keep an eye on imports and the overall environment in the near term. International price hikes will continue to affect domestic market sentiment. From the perspective of the market environment, potash and other fertilizers remain a backdrop that is more likely to rise than fall.
In the short term, the domestic formic acid market is likely to remain in a sideways consolidation pattern, with limited room for price fluctuations. It is still necessary to pay attention to the progress of facility maintenance, the recovery of downstream demand, and various positive and negative news. Calcium formate prices have been stable recently, and it is recommended to stock up according to demand.
Iodide prices are stable this week compared to last week.