Trace Elements Market Analysis

	Units	Week 3 of March	Week 4 of March	Week-on-week changes	Average price in February	Average price before March 27	Month-on-month change	Current price as of March 31
Shanghai Metals Market # Zinc ingots	Yuan/ton	23,250	22,830	↓420	24,540	23,653	↓887	23,430
Shanghai Metals Network # Electrolytic copper	Yuan/ton	97,966	94,604	↓3,362	101,507	98,708	↓2,799	95,600
Shanghai Metals Australia Mn46% manganese ore	Yuan/ton	43.97	45.09	↑1.12	42.45	43.90	↑1.45	45.45
The price of imported refined iodine by Business Society	Yuan/ton	635,000	635,000	-	635,000	635,000	-	635,000
Shanghai Metals Market Cobalt Chloride (co ≥ 24.2%)	Yuan/ton	115,750	115,750	-	116,000	115,788	↓212	115,750
Shanghai Metals Market Selenium Dioxide	Yuan/kilogram	172.5	172.5	-	158.20	172.00	↑13.8	172.5
Capacity utilization rate of titanium dioxide manufacturers	%	72.94	72.75	↓0.19	72.12	72.70	↑0.58

Sulfuric acid export ban: From May 1 to December 31, 2026, the export of general industrial sulfuric acid will be completely suspended. Only high-value-added special categories such as electronic-grade sulfuric acid can obtain export exemptions in accordance with the regulations.

Given the return of domestic supply, the seasonal weakening of downstream demand and the loosening of raw material costs, the price of sulfuric acid may have reached a temporary peak. It is expected that from the second quarter, the price will show a trend of high volatility and gradual decline, and the regional divergence will be more obvious.

1）Zinc sulfate

① Raw materials: Zinc hypooxide: Production capacity has picked up, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm is high, and the short-term transaction coefficient is unlikely to be reduced.

Zinc network price background: On a macro level, the US-Iran negotiations are progressing well and a direct ceasefire for two weeks may be possible. At the same time, Iran announced on the evening of the 17th that it would fully open up to compliant merchant ships, but they would have to take the routes designated by Iran for coordination, which weakened the US dollar index and benefited metal prices. There are no significant fluctuations in fundamentals for the time being, maintaining a strong supply and weak demand pattern. Zinc prices are expected to rise slightly next week, with an average price of 23,650 yuan per ton, influenced by favorable macroeconomic conditions.

② Sulfuric acid: Prices rose again this week.

Factory operating rate: 74%, capacity utilization rate: 72%, scheduling until the end of April. The peak demand season continues, order support is clear, and prices remain high and firm. Customers are advised to lock in orders in a timely manner in line with the inventory rhythm.

2）Manganese sulfate

In terms of raw materials: ① The price of sulfuric acid remains firm at a high level. It is expected that the price of sulfuric acid will gradually decline from a high level in the second quarter. Attention should be paid to the divergence of regional trends.

The current high cost support shows no sign of a price drop in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the price trend of sulfuric acid on the cost side. Lock in orders in a timely manner in light of current inventory consumption and production plans.

3）Ferrous sulfate

Raw materials: Supply remains tight, affected by environmental production restrictions, titanium dioxide and reduced by-product output from steel mills, capacity utilization is low (about 23%-40%), inventories are at historically low levels, spot is tight.

Sulfuric acid: High this week.

Considering the impact of recent inventory levels and operating rates, ferrous sulfate is expected to rise in the short term. Customers are advised to increase their inventories appropriately.

Titanium dioxide production capacity utilization rate

4）Copper sulfate/basic copper chloride

On the macro level: A weaker US dollar index has improved the outlook for metal demand, and a sharp rise in sulfuric acid prices has sparked enthusiasm among Chinese smelters to buy concentrate. Domestic social reserves have dropped to a more than two-month low, and domestic copper prices have maintained an upward trend, mainly thanks to the sharp rise in sulfuric acid prices. Domestic copper social inventories have been continuously reduced to historically low levels, and strong demand from downstream new energy and power grids is supporting high copper prices. Processing enterprises need to be highly vigilant about the risk of supply chain disruptions brought about by escalating geopolitical conflicts. The trend of the US dollar and expectations of Fed policy will be key variables in the future: if the US dollar continues to weaken and expectations of rate cuts rise, copper prices may continue to rebound; Conversely, if the geopolitical situation becomes more volatile or the dollar rebounds, it could trigger a pullback from the high. In the short term, copper prices will still revolve around macro factors, with a higher probability of strong volatility.

1) Current price trend

Shanghai Metals Market Electrolytic Coppe

Supply-side: The decline in global copper ore grade is a long-term structural problem, and the decline in output in major production areas such as Chile has become a fact. More importantly, the copper concentrate processing fee (TC) has dropped to a negative value (-78 US dollars per dry ton), meaning smelters are losing money for every ton of electrolytic copper they produce, which will inevitably force them to lower their operating rate and thus tighten the supply of refined copper from the source. Concerns over sulfur shortages caused by the situation in the Middle East are becoming a new variable affecting supply. Major wet-process copper producers such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo are highly dependent on imported sulfuric acid, and once supply is disrupted, it will directly restrict global electrolytic copper output

2) Copper price trend over the past five years (2021-2026) : Summary of the five-year trend: Upward - pullback - sideways - breakout again - High consolidation. It is currently at its highest point in nearly five years.

To sum up: Mine disruptions and potential sulfur shortages build a solid cost floor, and copper price increases are limited in the case of weakened spot premium and underwhelming inventories. Copper prices are currently in a delicate "high oscillation period". It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level.

Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the near future and remain at 100,000-105,000 yuan per ton

5) Magnesium sulfate/magnesium oxide

In terms of raw materials: Currently, sulfuric acid in the north is stable at a high level.

Due to the post-holiday control of magnesite resources, quota restrictions and environmental rectification, many enterprises are producing based on sales. Light-burned magnesia enterprises have been forced to suspend production for transformation due to capacity replacement policies, and short-term productivity is unlikely to increase significantly. Due to the war, sulfur prices rose and sulfuric acid prices went up, providing favorable support for magnesium sulfate prices. It is recommended to stock up appropriately.

6）Calcium iodate

The price of refined iodine rose slightly, the supply of calcium iodate was tight, some iodide manufacturers were shut down or limited production, and the supply of iodide was tight. It is expected that the tone of a long-term steady and small increase in iodide will remain unchanged. It is recommended to stock up appropriately.

7）Sodium selenite

In terms of raw materials: The prices of non-ferrous metals continue to rise. The overall market volume of crude selenium and selenium dioxide is shrinking while prices are stable. The supply of crude selenium and selenium dioxide in the market is tight. Capital speculation leads to a shortage of raw materials due to the upstream non-shipment of crude selenium and selenium dioxide. The inventory of manufacturers is low and prices are rising. Buy on demand.

8）Cobalt chloride

Trading has been lackluster in the cobalt salt market recently, and prices have continued to decline. Overall downstream restocking willingness remains weak. Cobalt intermediate prices are rising. Indonesia's nickel tax policy has pushed up smelting costs, and enterprises' willingness to lower prices has weakened significantly. At the same time, some downstream believe that prices are already low and their inventories are near the safety margin, and there is a willingness to restock. Cobalt salts are likely to stabilize gradually, and prices are expected to see a restorative rebound once purchasing demand recovers. It is recommended to purchase on demand.

9）Potassium chloride/potassium carbonate/calcium formate/iodide

1.Potassium chloride: Due to the international situation, the prices of fertilizers such as nitrogen and phosphorus are high and volatile. Potassium fertilizer is in the off-season of demand and has fluctuated due to the war. In the near future, pay attention to the international situation and policy orientation. The supply guarantee strategy will not slacken. In the near future, stability should be the main focus.
2.Formic acid prices have dropped slightly, production enterprises have a large inventory, and demand is weak. Calcium formate prices are falling at a lower cost. It is recommended to stock up according to demand.
3. Iodide prices remained stable this week compared to last week.