Overall Market Highlight

Overall market trend: Most products are holding firm prices, while some areas are declining due to capacity constraints and raw material pressures. Zinc salts and manganese salts remain stable as costs provide a floor; prices for heptahydrate zinc sulfate vary due to production capacity issues; copper sulfate prices have declined, with demand showing no improvement, and the market continues to rely on cost support.

Next week's focus: At the macro level, closely monitor the impact of U.S. CPI and PPI data on non-ferrous metal prices; at the industry level, track the pace of downstream demand recovery.

Week-on-week change: Month-on-month change:

Market Item	Unit	Week 4 of October	Week 1 of November	WoW Change	Avg Price Oct	Nov 11 Current
Shanghai Metals Market #Zinc Ingots	Yuan per ton	25708	25469	↓209	25665	25355
Shanghai Metals Market #Electrolytic Copper	Yuan per ton	110420	109731	↓689	110695	108230
Shanghai Metals Market Australia Mn46% manganese ore	Yuan per ton	42.55	42.33	-	42.55	42.33
Business Society Import Refined Iodine Price	Yuan per ton	635000	635000	-	635000	635000
Shanghai Metals Market Cobalt Chloride (co ≥ 24.2%)	Yuan per ton	54600	54000	↓600	61029	58500
Shanghai Metals Market Selenium Dioxide	Yuan per kilogram	117	117.3	↑0.3	116.38	117.5
Titanium dioxide manufacturer capacity utilization rate	%	73.38	73.38	-	73.38

Zinc sulfate

Raw materials: The tight supply of secondary zinc oxide has been the main bottom support for prices this week. With losses continuing and raw material costs having no further room for compression, there is currently no space to lower quotations. However, the shortage of raw materials can only provide a floor, not reverse the weak demand trend.

Supply side: Operating rate at 60% (up 2 percentage points from the previous period), capacity utilization at 58% (up 1 percentage point), with orders booked through early December. Both operating rate and capacity utilization have seen a slight recovery, but absolute levels remain low, indicating limited supply growth.

Demand side: Domestic demand remains weak, characterized by "feed replenishment based on actual needs and fertilizer demand hampered by high finished fertilizer inventories." On the export front, shipping rates for South America routes continue to decline, while other routes remain stable at high levels; freight rates remain a key indicator of export demand.

Macro factors: Zinc prices declined by 239 yuan to 25,469 yuan per ton, while zinc ingot inventory continued to fall to 179,100 tons, providing a floor for prices. If U.S. inflation data exceeds expectations, it will further suppress zinc prices, making this the key external variable next week.

Price outlook: Short-term stability with a wait-and-see approach. Prices are expected to remain stable, constrained by losses and raw material shortages on the downside, and lacking demand-driven momentum on the upside. Watch for freight rate trends influencing export inquiries; only when export volumes increase will price elasticity emerge.

Manganese sulfate

On the raw material side, high costs of manganese ore and sulfuric acid have limited the downward potential for prices, with cost serving as the first line of defense keeping quotations stable this week.

Supply side: Operating rate at 81% (down 13 percentage points), capacity utilization at 65% (down 6 percentage points), and order backlog of 25–30 days (scheduled through early December) remained unchanged. Temporary shutdowns and phased supply contraction were key factors enabling prices to hold up despite weak demand this week.

Demand side: Both fertilizer and feed demand have shown no signs of improvement, while overseas exports remain hindered by disruptions in shipping costs. Domestic and external demand are both weak. With no indication of demand recovery, prices are entirely supported by supply contraction.

Price outlook: In the current phase of supply-demand balance, prices are expected to remain stable. If supply recovers while demand remains weak, there is a risk of further price declines. However, if manganese ore costs continue to rise, quotations may see slight upward adjustments. It is advisable to replenish inventory as needed without making directional bets.

Ferrous sulfate

Raw materials: Rising costs provide a floor for prices, forming the basis for maintaining stable quotations under the current demand conditions.

Supply side: Operating rate at 75% (up 12 percentage points), capacity utilization at 29% (up 9 percentage points), and order lead times stable at 25–30 days. New capacity coming online is creating supply pressure, which remains the main constraint on price increases; with capacity utilization at only 29%, actual output is still limited by order volume and quality requirements.

Demand side: As initial inventory is gradually depleted, downstream buyers continue to purchase according to demand, with no signs of concentrated restocking. Demand remains primarily driven by rigid consumption, making it difficult to absorb new production capacity.

Price outlook: Costs and new capacity additions are offsetting each other, leaving limited room for significant short-term price declines, with prices expected to remain stable. If new capacity continues to come online while demand remains sluggish, the price trend may shift slightly downward. Buyers should shorten decision cycles and follow up with small, incremental purchases.

Copper sulfate/basic copper chloride

On the raw material side, tight copper concentrate supply and high spot premiums provide a floor, with expected operating range of 108,000–110,000 yuan per ton. As raw material costs decline, quotations have been adjusted downward.

Supply side: Operating rate remains at 100%, unchanged; capacity utilization stays at 42%, stable. Facilities are running at full load, but effective output is limited. The supply side shows neither contraction nor expansion, and prices follow a one-way transmission from raw materials.

Demand side: Despite operating at full capacity with a utilization rate of only 42%, and with price declines significantly smaller than those in raw materials, demand has exerted some restraint on the price drop, but not enough to drive prices back up.

Macro factors: Copper prices rose initially but declined later this week. A weaker dollar following the midterm elections briefly supported prices, while ADP employment data exceeding expectations raised hopes for a December rate hike. However, with market sentiment turning cautious ahead of the non-farm payroll release, copper prices ultimately retreated. Next week's CPI and PPI data will be key directional variables.

Price outlook: Following the narrow decline in copper prices, the drop is constrained by domestic supply and demand dynamics. Prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 108,000–110,000 yuan per ton for electrolytic copper. If inflation exceeds expectations or interest rate hikes materialize, further downside correction remains possible. We recommend purchasing opportunistically based on production schedules to avoid stockpiling at high levels.

1) Current price trend

Magnesium sulfate/magnesium oxide

On the raw material side, the magnesium market remained sideways this week with slight divergence in cost components. Magnesium sulfate continued to hold at high levels without significant gains, while sulfur and sulfuric acid prices saw narrow fluctuations. Cost support remains intact but lacks new momentum. Production at factories is running normally, and social inventory levels remain low, leading to stable pricing. Supply of premium raw materials has tightened due to tighter availability of high-purity calcined magnesia powder, stricter mining controls in Liaoning, and the phase-out of older kilns. This has led to a constrained supply of high-quality materials and tight spot conditions. However, downstream steel mills are in their seasonal off-peak period, with transactions mainly driven by routine replenishment needs. With both supply and demand weak, price increases have been limited.

Purchasing advice: Magnesium sulfate is currently at a one-year low, with limited upside potential. Procure as needed and maintain a safety stock of approximately 15 days; avoid large-scale stockpiling. Closely monitor sulfur and sulfuric acid price trends. If input costs decline, consider replenishing inventory in batches. Magnesium oxide (especially feed-grade full-magnesium specifications) has remained stable for several consecutive weeks, supported by solid cost underpinnings and limited downside risk. We recommend maintaining regular procurement schedules. For pre-Spring Festival demand, consider securing one to two months' supply in advance to mitigate potential short-term tightness caused by winter mine restrictions and transportation constraints.

Cobalt Salts

The cobalt market experienced a long-awaited rebound this week, with cobalt salts showing initial signs of recovery, although trading volume has not kept pace. This rally was primarily driven by market sentiment and capital inflows, confirming the earlier support level around 200,000 yuan per ton. However, fundamental conditions have not improved substantially: downstream buyers' purchase intentions remain clustered around 40,000 yuan per ton, meaning the gap between buyer prices and manufacturer quotations has not significantly narrowed. Moreover, since October, electrolytic cobalt production has rapidly recovered, and supply pressures are expected to emerge gradually in the coming period, casting uncertainty over the sustainability of the current upswing. Purchase recommendations: This round of price increase in cobalt salts reflects sentiment recovery rather than demand-driven growth, posing significant risks for chasing higher prices. We recommend procuring only as needed and avoiding large one-time purchases at elevated levels; instead, consider replenishing inventory moderately after prices pull back to around 42,000 yuan per ton. For cobalt chloride, maintain stable pricing and keep normal inventory levels between 25 to 30 days.

Iodized salt

This week, the iodine market remained narrowly stable at high levels, with calcium iodate prices holding firm. The supply side continued to be highly concentrated, and overseas supply remained tight. Downstream iodide products such as potassium iodide and sodium iodide also maintained steady pricing without significant easing. Domestic refined iodine spot prices remain significantly above benchmark levels, while import costs are relatively high, limiting sellers' willingness to offer lower prices. As a deep-processed iodine product, calcium iodate is fully supported by the cost of refined iodine.

This week's prices remained stable with a slight upward trend. Actual transactions for feed-grade calcium iodate were mainly based on fulfilling previous orders, with limited new orders. Procurement advice: With iodine prices at a one-year high and showing no signs of decline, coupled with concentrated supply and vulnerability to overseas disruptions, we recommend cautious inventory management and increasing safety stock to two months' usage to avoid shortages at critical times. Additionally, consider comparing and locking in quarterly long-term contracts with installment pricing to avoid purchasing at peak levels and better control cost volatility risks.

Sodium selenite

The selenium market remained overall stable this week, with slight warming in the spot segment. Selenium powder (Se≥99.9%) prices were completely unchanged compared to last week. On the cost side, tight supply of crude selenium and limited increases in copper smelting by-products have supported a gradual upward shift in price levels.

Purchasing advice: Selenium prices are rising slowly at high levels with minimal volatility, and the cost pressure from sodium selenite remains manageable. We recommend purchasing according to demand and maintaining normal inventory levels. Consider replenishing in batches when spot prices of selenium dioxide temporarily decline, avoiding buying at peak prices. Closely monitor the pace of by-product supply from copper smelters and the impact of environmental restrictions on production.

Potassium chloride/potassium carbonate/calcium formate/iodide

1. Potassium chloride: This week, potassium chloride continued to stabilize at low levels, with a noticeable slowdown in the downward trend. Prices shifted slightly upward but showed weak rebound momentum. On the supply side, port inventories remained at historically high levels, which remains the key factor suppressing prices. However, there were no new import orders from border trade in November, and major traders have been controlling their releases, reducing the availability of low-cost supplies. Some lower-end quotes have tentatively increased, moving closer to traders' cost lines. On the demand side, compound fertilizer producers maintained low operating rates, primarily focusing on consuming existing inventory, and procurement continued to follow a basic need model, making it difficult for trading volumes to expand.

Procurement advice: The market is currently in a phase of adjustment between emotional lows and fundamental bottoms, with limited downside potential but insufficient momentum for a rebound. Maintain demand-based procurement and keep inventory levels around twenty days. Given that port inventories remain high and have not yet been absorbed, there is no need to rush or stockpile. Consider gradually building positions at lower prices when they approach the support level below 2,800 yuan per ton.

2. This week, calcium formate costs continued to strengthen, with product prices rising slightly and the upward trend narrowing compared to last month. The reference price for raw material formic acid this week was 2,600 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan from last week—a weekly increase of 4%, and up 600 yuan cumulatively over the past month, representing a monthly rise of 30%. However, the price has remained flat for three consecutive trading days this week, indicating that after rapid gains, the market has entered a consolidation phase. Suppliers have maintained high pricing, with premium-grade, high-purity products commanding even higher quotes. The underlying support remains tight supply due to upstream plant maintenance and low operating rates, combined with relatively stable downstream demand for formates and pharmaceutical intermediates, which strengthens producers' willingness to hold firm on prices. For calcium formate, manufacturers continue facing increasing cost pressures, pushing their quotation levels upward. However, feed-grade end users have limited bargaining power and low acceptance, resulting in actual transaction increases significantly lower than those of raw materials. Procurement advice: Although the cost-side upward momentum has slowed, prices remain elevated—caution is advised when stocking. It is recommended to place orders in batches based on approximately one month's usage, securing volume without locking in prices, to avoid the risk of large-scale price adjustments if raw material prices reverse. Closely monitor the restart schedule of formic acid plants; consider expanding inventory only if formic acid prices show a clear decline.