Overall Market Highlight

The market exhibits characteristics of "weak demand during peak season and cost-driven pricing," with costs becoming the dominant factor in determining prices across various products. According to weekly report data: copper sulfate and zinc sulfate monohydrate were affected by weakening input costs; calcium iodate declined (due to falling raw material refined iodine); prices for zinc sulfate heptahydrate and ferrous sulfate showed divergent trends; while manganese sulfate monohydrate and cobalt chloride remained weakly stable.

Next week's focus: Mixed macroeconomic signals—domestic Q3 GDP growth of 4.5% slightly exceeded expectations, September exports rose by 36.3%, and industrial output increased by 5.5%, supporting demand for industrial metals such as copper and zinc. However, attacks on Saudi oil fields drove up oil prices, while U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 194,000, highlighting labor market resilience. This has cooled down rate-cutting expectations and strengthened the dollar, weighing on metal prices. Next week’s key event is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision; investors should remain cautious about potential hawkish rhetoric that could bring sustained bearish pressure.

Week-on-week change: Month-on-month change:

	Unit	Week 2 of October	Week 3 of October	Week-on-week change	Average price in September	Average price as of October 23	Month-on-month change	October 29 current price
Shanghai Metals Market #Zinc Ingots	Yuan per ton	25704	25428	↓276	26582	25727	↓779	25835
Shanghai Metals Market #Electrolytic Copper	Yuan per ton	111183	109958	↓1225	110387	111049	↑1031	110860
Shanghai Metals Market Australia Mn46% manganese ore	Yuan per ton	43.05	42.55	-	43.05	42.55	↑0.20	42.55
Business Society Import Refined Iodine Price	Yuan per ton	635000	635000	-	635000	635000	-	635000
Shanghai Metals Market Cobalt Chloride (co ≥ 24.2%)	Yuan per ton	66600	58600	↓8000	79595	64817	↓12238	54000
Shanghai Metals Market Selenium Dioxide	Yuan per kilogram	116	116.5	↑0.5	114.43	116	↑1.57	117
Titanium dioxide manufacturer capacity utilization rate	%	73.38	73.38	-	71.96	73.38	↑1.42

Zinc sulfate

Zinc sulfate monohydrate: Seasonal demand expectations fall short.

Order backlog of 30 days (unchanged from the previous period), operating rate of 58% (up 11 percentage points from the previous period), and capacity utilization of 57% (up 7 percentage points).

On the raw material side: Zinc prices have continued to weaken since October, reducing cost support. Sulfuric acid prices across regions have fluctuated, while supplies of high-content materials such as zinc oxide, lead, and indium remain tight, keeping transaction volumes high. However, the decline in zinc prices has pulled down overall costs.

Supply side: Capacity is gradually increasing, with the operating rate rising by 11 percentage points month-on-month to 58%, and capacity utilization reaching 57%, indicating a marginal increase in supply.

Demand side: Weak domestic demand—feed suppliers are gradually replenishing inventories as stockpiles deplete; fertilizer producers, facing high finished product inventories at major companies and declining prices of raw materials such as phosphate and potash fertilizers, show low production enthusiasm, with operating capacity 30%–40% lower than the same period last year. Export challenges persist: shipping freight rates remain high and stable, expected to rise further in early November. Although inquiries have slightly recovered, elevated freight costs continue to suppress new order placements.

Macro factors:

Zinc prices are weak, pressured by escalating geopolitical tensions and high inflation.

Price Forecast and Recommendations:

With macroeconomic pressures, zinc prices are expected to remain weak and volatile next week, with a core trading range around 25,300 yuan per ton. Recommendation: Be cautious of sustained suppression on exports due to high freight rates; suggest replenishing inventory as needed.

Manganese sulfate

Order lead time remains at 25–30 days (unchanged), operating rate is 88% (down 6 percentage points from the previous period), capacity utilization stands at 67% (down 3 percentage points); pricing remains stable.

Raw materials: Sulfuric acid prices in production areas remain high, providing strong cost support.

Supply side: The operating rate declined by 6 percentage points month-on-month to 88%, indicating marginal contraction in supply.

Demand side: Feed sector is procuring as needed; fertilizer production capacity has declined by 30%-40% compared to the same period last year, weighed down by high inventory levels and falling raw material prices; export demand from overseas inquiries has shown some recovery, but new orders remain hindered by elevated shipping costs.

Macro factors: Overall supported by domestic economic data driving demand for non-ferrous metals and a trade environment characterized by high shipping freight rates.

Price Forecast and Recommendations:

Strong cost support and balanced supply-demand dynamics have kept prices stable. Recommendation: Replenish inventory as usual based on your current stock levels.

Ferrous sulfate

Operating rate at 63% (down 4 percentage points from the previous period), capacity utilization at 20% (up 3 percentage points); quotation prices have been raised.

Raw materials: High support from ferrous sulfate heptahydrate, with price quotes raised.

Supply side: New capacity is gradually coming online, intensifying the industry's oversupply situation, with most players maintaining a wait-and-see stance.

Demand side: As earlier inventory is being depleted, downstream buyers continue to purchase according to demand.

Price Forecast and Recommendations:

Although new capacity has intensified the oversupply situation, widespread industry losses have provided a bottoming support, suggesting limited room for further price declines in the short term. Recommendation: Procure according to your inventory needs.

Copper sulfate/basic copper chloride

1）Costs decline with falling copper prices, but supply and demand constraints limit the downside.

Operating rate at 100% (unchanged), capacity utilization at 42% (unchanged); due to the drag from copper prices, this week's quotations declined.

Raw materials: This week, the copper price on the trading platform declined compared to last week, weakening cost support.

Supply side: Operating rate remains at 100%, capacity utilization is 42%; tight copper ore supply provides a floor for copper prices.

Demand side: Copper sulfate is limited in its price decline due to its own supply and demand dynamics.

Macro factors: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have intensified again this week, pushing oil prices higher and increasing energy inflation pressures, further strengthening expectations of Fed rate hikes, which pressured copper prices below 110,000 yuan per ton. Macro sentiment is likely to remain weak next week. Domestic data such as a 4.5% GDP growth in the third quarter and a 36.3% rise in September exports provided support for industrial demand for copper and other non-ferrous metals.

Price Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Looking ahead, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to hold steady at its October 28 FOMC meeting. In the short term, marginal easing in dollar strength and U.S. Treasury yields will directly suppress copper prices. However, expectations of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December remain, and the baseline forecast of high interest rates persisting through late 2027 will continue to elevate copper carrying costs, affecting long-term price valuations. Global copper supply disruptions persist, with rigid supply constraints stemming from the long development cycles of mines and declining ore grades. Domestic smelters are increasingly inclined toward production cuts, while green energy transition, AI computing infrastructure, and emerging market construction projects are collectively boosting demand. With fundamental support, copper prices are unlikely to experience significant declines in the near term. In the short run, prices will fluctuate amid ongoing tensions between macroeconomic pressures and resilient fundamentals, with future direction tied closely to policy signals in December, U.S. Treasury yields, progress on U.S. copper tariffs, and geopolitical premiums on smelting auxiliaries and energy amid Middle East instability. Over the longer term, the upward trend in copper's price center is clear, as rigid supply constraints make it difficult to close the deficit quickly. At its core, this copper price battle reflects a struggle between physical shortages and financial tightening. Until the supply crisis is fully resolved, the bull market for copper may stumble but will not easily halt. We expect copper prices to remain range-bound at elevated levels going forward.

Operational suggestion: Flexibly time purchases according to production schedules to avoid buying at high prices.

1) Current price trend

Magnesium sulfate/magnesium oxide

In terms of raw materials, the magnesium market stabilized overall this week: magnesium sulfate halted its decline and steadied, while magnesium oxide remained stable with large-crystal grades showing strength. The benchmark price for magnesium sulfate held steady for the second consecutive week at previous levels, with year-on-year growth still approaching 60%, and the pressure from earlier high prices has been partially released. On the cost side, sulfur, after a period of continuous decline, turned sideways this week but remains at a high level year-on-year. Sulfuric acid prices have stabilized at lower levels, and the cost gap between by-product and salt lake brine-extracted types persists. Manufacturers' willingness to clear inventory has weakened compared to earlier periods, narrowing their room for price concessions. For magnesium oxide, standard and low-silicon, high-calcium fused magnesia sand prices remained stable, unchanged year-on-year, while large-crystal grades saw upward price adjustments, supporting a stronger market trend. Magnesia sand producers maintained low operating rates, with rigid costs. Raw material magnesium ingots showed slight recovery at low levels, though still significantly below year-earlier levels. In terms of trends, magnesium sulfate is expected to consolidate at lower levels in the short term, with limited downside potential; magnesium oxide will remain stable to firm, with possible catch-up gains in large-crystal grades. Procurement recommendations: for magnesium sulfate, take advantage of current low prices to gradually replenish small quantities and continue negotiating lower prices; for magnesium oxide, purchase according to demand—lock in volumes moderately at stable prices for standard grades, and secure pricing early for large-crystal grades to guard against future increases.

Calcium iodate

This week, the iodine market remained stable at high levels, with calcium iodate prices holding firm. Supply of refined iodine is highly concentrated, and overseas supply remains tight, keeping the benchmark iodine price locked at a one-year high with a slight year-on-year increase. Downstream iodides such as potassium iodide and sodium iodide also maintained steady pricing. Calcium iodate producers operated steadily with low inventory levels, and mainstream prices have remained unchanged for several consecutive weeks. Cost pressures are being effectively passed through, with no immediate downward pressure on prices. On the demand side, feed manufacturers continued to purchase at a steady pace—neither significantly increasing nor decreasing—indicating stable essential demand. Traders reported low inventory levels and weak willingness to sell at lower prices. In the short term, refined iodine is more likely to rise than fall, while calcium iodate enjoys strong price support and limited room for decline. Market participants should monitor overseas iodine ore shipments, import arrivals, and seasonal shifts in aquaculture and livestock farming demand. Procurement advice: consider moderate stockpiling and price locking for calcium iodate; when refined iodine prices remain firm, it's advisable to secure long-term contracts early to avoid price spikes from concentrated buying.

Sodium selenite

This week, the selenium market continued to show divergence and remained narrowly range-bound overall: selenium powder held steady at higher levels, while selenium dioxide showed weak stability with a downward bias. On the selenium powder side, downstream inquiries maintained moderate activity, with some traders favoring price stabilization or even upward adjustments, keeping prices near the upper end of the range. In contrast, terminal demand for selenium dioxide has yet to improve, leaving holders with low confidence and reluctant participation in trading, resulting in negotiations hovering at lower levels and compressed industry profit margins. On the cost side, quotations for crude selenium and selenium ingots remained generally stable, without forming a clear direction, leading to a prevailing sentiment of market caution. In terms of trend, the short-term divergence—stronger selenium powder versus weaker selenium dioxide—is likely to persist, with the overall market remaining within a narrow range and lacking momentum for a decisive breakout. Key factors to watch include the pace of by-product releases from copper smelters and the sustainability of restocking demand from downstream glass and feed industries. Procurement advice: purchase as needed without overstocking in advance; if selenium powder continues to rise, consider small-volume locking-in orders; for selenium dioxide, wait for further price declines before replenishing inventory; maintain low finished sodium selenite stock levels.

Cobalt chloride

This week, the cobalt market continued its weak trend with prices shifting lower, though signs of stabilization emerged toward the end of the week. On the demand side, reductions in production of ternary precursors intensified, while order performance remained mixed. Production schedules for 3C and power batteries were slow, prompting cathode material manufacturers to adopt cautious purchasing behavior and lithium cobalt oxide producers to significantly cut procurement. Buyers' reference prices kept falling, resulting in sparse actual transactions. On the supply side, shipments from the Democratic Republic of the Congo arrived in bulk, and Indonesia's MHP output continued to rise. In September, imports of cobalt hydrometallurgical intermediate products surged nearly 80% month-on-month. The substitution rate of recycled cobalt for primary cobalt exceeded 30%, easing raw material tightness. As a result, pricing coefficients for intermediates and MHP declined simultaneously, causing comprehensive collapse in cost support. Cobalt salt prices weakened across both long-term and spot contracts, with spot cobalt sulfate transactions notably below long-term levels. Cobalt chloride saw little effective trading and experienced a quiet decline without volume. Most cobalt salt producers suspended public quotations, showing extremely low willingness to sell at losses, while some traders chose to hold off and wait. In the short term, the market remains bearish, with cobalt salts under pressure to further correct. For metallic cobalt, attention should be paid to support at key round-number levels, with close monitoring of Q4 ternary battery production plans and quota implementation in the DRC. Procurement advice: manage cobalt purchases prudently according to needs—avoid chasing lows or stockpiling—and await clear signals of demand recovery. Long-term contracts may consider shorter delivery cycles.

Potassium chloride/potassium carbonate/calcium formate/iodide

1. Potassium Chloride: This week, potassium chloride prices halted their decline and showed signs of recovery, stabilizing on a weak note. On the supply side, port inventories reached another record high, increasing by over 100,000 tons compared to the previous week and more than doubling year-on-year. Storage pressure is evident at some ports, but supplies remain concentrated among major traders, who are increasingly reluctant to sell and beginning to test higher prices. September imports rose slightly month-on-month, with cumulative imports in the first nine months already exceeding last year's total. Import cost levels are gradually approaching spot prices, limiting further downward movement due to cost support. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer purchases are winding down, while winter stockpiling has not yet kicked off. Compound fertilizer production rates remain low, and downstream buyers are focusing mainly on small, essential orders and price comparisons. With the annual phosphorus-potassium fertilizer supply-demand conference approaching and leading companies signaling intentions to support prices, combined with expectations of reduced export capacity from Russia and Belarus in the fourth quarter, market speculation is intensifying. In terms of trend, prices have shifted from a one-sided downtrend to a weak stabilization, with potential for short-term rallies followed by pullbacks in certain areas. Market developments will depend on the timing of winter stockpiling, pace of port inventory reduction, and progress in next year’s long-term contract negotiations. Procurement advice: Buy according to needs, lock in volumes in batches at lower levels, avoid chasing rising prices, and refrain from hoarding.

2. This week, calcium formate costs rose sharply while product prices remained stable. Raw material formic acid continued its rebound from low levels, with benchmark prices increasing nearly 10% in a single day—up over 5% since the beginning of the month and gaining 15% cumulatively over the past twenty days. However, year-on-year prices are still down nearly 20%, remaining at a one-year low. Rising costs have significantly strengthened manufacturers' willingness to hold firm on pricing, reducing availability of lower-priced supplies. Price gaps between industrial-grade and feed-grade products, as well as between brands and regions, remain substantial. On the supply side, production operations are normal and inventory is sufficient, with no signs of voluntary output cuts. On the demand side, downstream feed enterprises are mainly replenishing small orders based on immediate needs, resulting in modest trading activity and limited acceptance of price increases. In the short term, calcium formate faces upward pressure driven by rising costs, but weak demand may limit the extent of price follow-through. Key factors to watch include the sustainability of the formic acid rebound, as well as changes in inventory and production capacity. Procurement advice: purchase according to actual needs. Given that calcium formate has not yet followed the price increase, consider securing one to two months’ essential requirements in advance to avoid being passively affected by future cost-driven hikes.