Overall market outlook: This week, zinc-based products strengthened due to rising zinc prices, with monohydrate zinc sulfate, manganese sulfate, and copper sulfate following the upward trend. Ferrous sulfate, heptahydrate zinc sulfate, and other trace elements remained largely stable. Calcium iodate declined as raw material prices fell.

Next week's focus: geopolitical risks, U.S. CPI and PPI data (impact on copper and zinc prices); at the industrial level, closely monitor the cost pressure from rising zinc prices being passed on to downstream products.

Market Price Analysis Summary

Commodity / Metric	Unit	Week 4 Aug	Week 1 Sep	W-o-W Change	Avg Aug Price	Avg Sep 4	M-o-M Change	Sep 8 Price
Shanghai Metals Market #Zinc Ingots	Yuan per ton	26081	26538	↑457	24523	26629	↑1031	27415
Shanghai Metals Market #Electrolytic Copper	Yuan per ton	108989	109581	↑592	104393	109624	↑1400	111255
Shanghai Metals Market Australia Mn46% manganese ore	Yuan per ton	42.9	42.9	↑0.04	43.13	42.9	-	42.9
Business Society Import Refined Iodine Price	Yuan per ton	635000	635000	-	635000	635000	-	635000
Shanghai Metals Market Cobalt Chloride (co ≥ 24.2%)	Yuan per ton	87200	86400	↓800	101478	86250	↓4417	84000
Shanghai Metals Market Selenium Dioxide	Yuan per kilogram	115	114.4	↓0.6	120.9	114.3	↓0.94	114
Titanium dioxide manufacturer capacity utilization rate	%	71.55	71.77	↑0.22	72.18	71.11	↓0.28	-

Zinc sulfate

Raw materials: Zinc net prices continued to rise, with the average zinc price as of September 4 up by 1,031 yuan per ton compared to the August average. Supply of high-grade secondary zinc oxide remains tight, keeping transaction activity at a high level. Sulfuric acid prices remained stable across all regions.

Supply side: Operating rate: 55% (unchanged), capacity utilization: 54% (↑12%), order backlog: 30–35 days (↑5 days). Capacity utilization has significantly improved, but orders have also increased accordingly, leading to tight market supply.

Demand side: Domestic demand is rising. The feed industry benefits from the approaching peak season and increased livestock feed consumption, leading to steady demand growth. Meanwhile, the autumn fertilizer application season for compound fertilizers is underway, and procurement cycles for specialty fertilizers have already begun.

Export recovery: Shipping rates for South American routes remain high and stable, while overseas end-user demand is gradually being released, leading to a steady increase in export orders.

Macro factors: Zinc prices have continued to strengthen, driven by low processing fees, positive market sentiment, and capital inflows. Cost pressures have been effectively passed on downstream, while favorable macroeconomic conditions have provided a positive upward pull on prices.

Price Outlook: In the short term, with the peak consumption season approaching and costs continuing to rise, prices still have room to increase.

Suggestion: Lock orders promptly based on your current inventory.

Manganese sulfate

Raw materials: Sulfuric acid prices remained stable, and the price of Gabon ore Mn41% manganese concentrate at Qinzhou Port held firm at a high level (38.5 yuan per ton-degree), keeping overall raw material costs strong.

Supply side: Operating rate: 94% (unchanged), capacity utilization: 64% (down 9%), order backlog: 45–50 days (unchanged). Although capacity utilization has slightly declined, orders remain strong and are already booked through mid-October, indicating tight supply conditions.

Demand side: Domestically, feed demand has shown some recovery, while increased capacity utilization in fertilizer and compound fertilizer production, along with the initiation of procurement for specialty fertilizers, has driven additional demand. On the export front, although some overseas manufacturers have resumed operations, existing orders extending into early October continue to support prices. Demand for manganese sulfate has strengthened, boosted by rising production and export volumes of ternary precursors

Macro factors: No direct macroeconomic factors; primarily driven by international capacity relocation and downstream inventory replenishment.

Price outlook: Orders are sufficient, with production and shipping scheduled; prices remain stable with a slight upward trend.

Operational suggestion: Lock orders promptly based on your current inventory.

Ferrous sulfate

Raw materials: Prices have declined to low levels, cost support effects are emerging, and further downward space is limited.

Supply side: Operating rate at 50% (unchanged), capacity utilization at 20% (unchanged). Prior active production control has led to a 50–60% reduction in market supply compared to August, resulting in significantly tighter supply and strong pricing support.

Demand side: With the arrival of the peak consumption season (according to communication with group feed manufacturers, feed production is expected to increase by approximately 10%), demand for ferrous sulfate has risen accordingly.

Macro factors: No direct macroeconomic impact.

Price Outlook: This week's price trend: stable and consolidating at the bottom. Short-term forecast: With production control and inventory reduction in place, demand is gradually recovering, and sellers remain firm on pricing, confirming the bottom level. Recommendation: Lock in positions promptly.

Copper sulfate/basic copper chloride

Raw materials: Copper prices rose this week, boosted by positive macroeconomic sentiment.

Supply side: Copper sulfate operating rate at 100% (unchanged), capacity utilization at 42% (unchanged). Affected by the typhoon, import copper shipments have been delayed. Combined with increased exports from smelters, domestic supply has tightened and social inventory continues to decline.

1) Outlook for future trends:

This week, copper prices rebounded, driven by both macroeconomic and fundamental factors. On the macro side, U.S. ADP employment data fell short of expectations, signaling continued weakening in the labor market, which led markets to lower their September interest rate hike forecasts—positively impacting metal prices. Fundamentally, with the traditional "golden September, silver October" consumption peak approaching, copper inventories continued to decline to 88,900 tons, reaching a three-month low. Supported by both macroeconomic and fundamental factors, the weekly average price rose to 109,581 yuan per ton.

The copper price is expected to range between 109,000 and 110,000 yuan per ton next week. With ongoing macroeconomic support and the approaching peak season for electrolytic copper demand, downstream inventory needs are gradually emerging, providing further upward momentum for copper prices.

Suggested: Copper sulfate prices are constrained by their own supply and demand dynamics, limiting the extent to which they can follow copper price increases. It is recommended to flexibly time purchases according to production schedules to avoid buying at peak prices.

1) Current price trend

Magnesium sulfate/magnesium oxide

In terms of raw materials: The magnesium market remained stable this week, with prices unchanged from last week. According to statistics, the benchmark price for heptahydrate magnesium sulfate reached a one-year high. Market supply was sufficient, with abundant low-priced industrial-grade material available, while feed-grade products were priced based on quality, showing clear price differentials. On the magnesium oxide side, fused magnesia sand maintained stability; however, production costs in major regions continued to face pressure from electricity fees, and small-to-medium-sized plants remained shut down for maintenance. The industry's overall operating rate stayed low at 40%-50%, with slightly tighter supplies for certain specifications. Rising coal prices may support a modest upward trend in sintered magnesia sand in the near term. Procurement advice: For magnesium sulfate and magnesium oxide, replenish inventory gradually as needed. With prices stable, it is advisable to secure moderate quantities of magnesium oxide without overstocking.

Calcium iodate

The iodine market remained stable at high levels this week. Strong prices for refined iodine provided cost support. Production at manufacturers stayed steady with ample supply, while downstream feed companies maintained a stable procurement pace. In the short term, costs for refined iodine are more likely to rise than fall, and calcium iodate prices are well supported with limited room for decline. Procurement advice: consider moderate stockpiling and price locking for calcium iodate; when refined iodine remains firm, it is advisable to secure long-term contracts in advance.

Sodium selenite

The selenium market remained stable this week with sluggish trading. Selenium powder supply was mainly from copper smelting by-products, ensuring steady availability, while downstream demand remained weak and major manufacturers rarely issued tenders, keeping market sentiment low. Prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Stable raw material costs had limited impact on sodium selenite quotations, with spot prices negotiated on a case-by-case basis. Diselenide prices showed some fluctuations; moderate stockpiling is advisable.

Cobalt chloride

This week, the cobalt market has seen weak performance despite being in peak season. On the raw material side, cost support continues to weaken, with multiple cobalt chloride producers conducting maintenance and reducing output. Downstream buyers are purchasing only for essential needs, while sentiment remains cautious. Cobalt salts are expected to remain volatile and trend downward in September and October. Purchase advice: manage cobalt procurement according to demand, avoid chasing low prices or stockpiling, and wait for clear signals of recovery in demand.

Potassium chloride/potassium carbonate/calcium formate/iodide

1. Potassium chloride: Last week, potassium chloride prices remained largely stable with minor fluctuations, overall trending weak. Port inventories stayed high at 3.6 to 3.7 million tons, with slow inventory drawdown due to continuous arrivals of imported supplies, resulting in extremely ample supply. Downstream compound fertilizer plants operated at just over 30% capacity, mostly purchasing as needed and replenishing small quantities without any significant bulk buying, leading to a strong market sentiment of waiting and observing. Prices are expected to stabilize after the full-scale start of autumn sowing in northern regions during mid-to-late September, but short-term weakness is unlikely to change. Purchase recommendation: Buy according to demand; consider locking in volumes in batches at current low port prices, but avoid stockpiling amid falling prices.

2. The calcium formate market continued to rise this week. With raw material formic acid prices increasing and supporting costs, production operations remained normal and supply relatively ample. Downstream feed enterprises mainly replenished inventories in small quantities as needed, resulting in average trading activity. Price differences were primarily due to brand and regional factors. In the short term, prices are expected to remain firm. Purchase recommendation: buy according to demand.

3. Iodine prices remained stable this week compared to last week.