Overall market outlook: This week, the micro-market maintained strong prices at high levels. With cost support from zinc salts, manganese salts, ferrous sulfate, and diluents, combined with gradually recovering demand, prices remained firm. Copper sulfate saw a slight increase due to rising copper prices. For trading strategies: lock in positions promptly for monohydrate manganese sulfate, monohydrate zinc sulfate, and active zinc oxide; purchase copper sulfate flexibly, taking opportunities at lower levels; and procure heptahydrate zinc sulfate, sodium selenite, cobalt chloride, calcium iodate, and ferrous sulfate according to actual needs.

Focus next week

The Fed's FOMC interest rate decision, cost pressures from zinc prices passing through to downstream products, and the impact of evolving copper tariff policies on sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector.

	Unit	Week 1 of September	Week 2 of September	Week-on-week change	Average price in August	Average price as of September 11	Month-on-month change	September 16 current price
Shanghai Metals Market #Zinc Ingots	Yuan per ton	26538	27093	↑555	24523	26887	↑1289	26115
Shanghai Metals Market #Electrolytic Copper	Yuan per ton	109581	110905	↑1324	104393	110336	↑2112	108030
Shanghai Metals Market Australia Mn46% manganese ore	Yuan per ton	42.9	43.05	↑0.16	43.13	43.05	↑0.13	43.05
Business Society Import Refined Iodine Price	Yuan per ton	635000	635000	-	635000	635000	-	635000
Shanghai Metals Market Cobalt Chloride (co ≥ 24.2%)	Yuan per ton	86400	83000	↓3400	101478	8444	↓6223	78000
Shanghai Metals Market Selenium Dioxide	Yuan per kilogram	114.4	114.0	↓0.4	120.9	114.3	↓1.13	114
Titanium dioxide manufacturer capacity utilization rate	%	71.77	71.84	↑0.07	72.18	71.81	↓0.24

Zinc sulfate

Raw materials: Zinc prices continued their upward trend, with the average zinc price rising week-on-week. Supply of high-grade secondary zinc oxide remains tight, and transaction activity remains strong.

Supply side: The operating rate declined by 5% month-on-month, and capacity utilization dropped to 49%. The contraction in supply provided additional support to prices, keeping quotations firm at high levels.

Demand side: Domestic demand is rising. The feed industry benefits from the approaching peak season and increased livestock feed consumption, leading to steady growth in demand. Meanwhile, the autumn fertilization season for compound fertilizers is underway, and procurement cycles for specialty fertilizers have already begun.

Export recovery: With the peak consumption season approaching, downstream demand is gradually rebounding. On the domestic front, the feed industry benefits from the approaching peak season and increased livestock feed intake, leading to steady demand growth. In the fertilizer sector, compound fertilizers see rising demand as the autumn application season begins, while procurement cycles for specialty fertilizers have already started. Regarding exports, shipping freight rates on South American routes declined sharply this week, dropping 8%–20% compared to the previous week, as overseas end-user demand gradually picks up and export orders begin to increase.

Macro factors: Macroeconomic conditions primarily affect zinc prices. In China, CPI rose 0.8% year-on-year and PPI increased 3.8% year-on-year in August, providing support to non-ferrous metal prices. However, in the U.S., PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year and core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month—above expectations—leading markets to anticipate a 90% probability of a Fed rate hike, which strengthens the dollar and exerts downward pressure on non-ferrous metals. If the Fed raises interest rates as expected, zinc prices are likely to decline to around 26,500 yuan per ton. Conversely, if the Fed surprises by holding off, zinc prices may remain range-bound at higher levels. Should the White House officially confirm no tariff increase on copper, sentiment in the non-ferrous sector could improve, potentially offering additional support to zinc prices.

Price Outlook: Supported by cost floors and recovering demand, prices remain firm at high levels, with further upside potential ahead. We recommend locking in orders promptly based on your inventory position.

Manganese sulfate

Raw materials: Sulfuric acid prices remained stable; manganese ore prices held firm at high levels. Overall raw material costs remained strong, providing support to monohydrate manganese sulfate.

Supply side: Operating rate at 100%, up 6% month-on-month; capacity utilization at 65%, up 1% month-on-month. Orders are booked through the end of October, and with strong order support, pricing remains firm and production schedules are fully booked.

Demand side: Domestically, feed demand has shown signs of recovery, while increased capacity utilization in fertilizer and compound fertilizer production, along with the initiation of procurement for specialty fertilizers, has driven additional volume. On the export front, although some overseas manufacturers have resumed operations, their orders are already booked through late October, providing support to spot prices.

Macro factors: There are no direct policy disruptions at the macro level; impacts mainly come through raw material costs such as sulfuric acid and manganese ore. Overall, input costs remain firm, providing support to prices.

Price outlook: Supported by orders, quotations remain firm and prices stable. We recommend locking in orders promptly based on your inventory levels.

Ferrous sulfate

Raw materials: Costs provide some support for ferrous sulfate, but overall supply and demand remain in a weak balance, with no significant or sharp fluctuations observed in raw material prices.

Supply side: Inventory pressure is gradually easing. With a capacity utilization rate of only 13%, production control remains strong, and the contraction in supply provides support to prices, while also indicating that demand has not yet fully recovered.

Demand side: With the peak consumption season approaching (based on communication with group feed manufacturers, feed production is expected to increase by approximately 10%), demand for ferrous sulfate has risen accordingly.

Macro factors: No direct macroeconomic impact.

Price outlook: Supply and demand are gradually returning to a weak equilibrium, with prices remaining stable for now. We recommend purchasing as needed.

Copper sulfate/basic copper chloride

Raw materials: This week, the average copper price rose by 1,324 yuan per ton to 110,905 yuan per ton. Copper inventory decreased by 0.14 million tons from last week to 87,500 tons, reaching a three-month low. The rise in copper prices has strengthened cost support for copper sulfate.

Supply side: Operating rate at 100%, capacity utilization at 42%, both unchanged. Overall supply remains stable, and copper sulfate, constrained by its own supply-demand dynamics, has seen limited decline in line with copper prices.

1) Outlook for future trends:

This week, copper prices rebounded, driven by both macroeconomic and fundamental factors. On the macro side, the U.S. Treasury's purchase of $60 billion in long-term bonds heightened market concerns over U.S. debt credit risk, weakening the dollar index and supporting copper prices. However, the U.S. August PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September climbed to 90%, strengthening the dollar and further weighing on copper prices.

Suggestion: Copper prices are expected to range between 108,000 and 109,000 yuan per ton next week, with the copper net price likely to decline slightly. Due to its own supply-demand dynamics, copper sulfate will follow copper prices downward only to a limited extent. It is recommended to flexibly time purchases according to production schedules, avoiding procurement at high prices and seizing opportunities to buy when prices are low, thereby preventing excessive inventory buildup at elevated levels.

1) Current price trend

Magnesium sulfate/magnesium oxide

In terms of raw materials: The magnesium market remained generally stable this week, with some local strength. Supply was sufficient, and feed-grade products were priced based on quality. Magnesium oxide prices held steady, with production rates maintained at a low level of 40%-50% due to high electricity costs and safety inspections. Certain specifications experienced tight supply, while the average price of fused magnesia rose. Rising coal prices may slightly strengthen sintered magnesia. Procurement advice: Replenish magnesium sulfate and magnesium oxide in batches according to demand; for magnesium oxide, consider securing moderate quantities when prices are stable, but avoid large-scale stockpiling.

Calcium iodate

This week, the iodine market remained stable at high levels, supported by firm cost underpinnings. Refined iodine maintained strong prices. Calcium iodate producers operated steadily with sufficient supply, and downstream feed companies continued purchasing at a steady pace. In the short term, refined iodine costs are more likely to rise than fall, providing solid support for calcium iodate prices with limited room for decline. Purchase recommendations: consider moderate stockpiling and price locking for calcium iodate; when refined iodine remains firm, it is advisable to secure long-term contracts in advance.

Sodium selenite

The selenium market remained stable this week with sluggish trading activity. Selenium powder (Se≥99.9%) and selenium dioxide (SeO₂≥98%) prices held steady compared to last week, while Northern Color Network reported slight increases in both products. Supply of selenium powder mainly comes from copper smelting by-products, ensuring a stable source. However, downstream demand remains weak, with few large-scale manufacturers issuing tenders, leading to a generally weak market sentiment. Stable raw material costs have limited impact on sodium selenite pricing, and spot transactions are conducted on a case-by-case basis. Purchase recommendation: buy only as needed; avoid bulk stockpiling in advance. Monitor fluctuations in crude selenium and diselenium prices and consider small replenishments opportunistically.

Cobalt chloride

This week, the cobalt market accelerated its downward trend, showing clear weakness. The weekly cobalt price index from Shengyi fell by 7.34%, ranking first among all commodities in terms of decline. From January to August, domestic production of cobalt sulfate and cobalt chloride combined dropped 21.0% year-on-year, with an even steeper 45.4% decline in August alone. Meanwhile, the MHP cobalt pricing coefficient fell from 90% to 67%, pushing cost support lower. Downstream battery manufacturers maintained high inventory levels, continuing to suppress prices. Demand showed no improvement in September, while rumors of output cuts by major cell producers circulated and recyclers sold at low prices. This has created a tug-of-war dynamic characterized by "producers holding firm on prices, recyclers selling off, and demand remaining cautious." In the short term, cobalt salts are expected to remain weak as the market seeks a bottom. Procurement advice: manage cobalt purchases prudently according to needs—avoid chasing lows or stockpiling—and wait for clearer signs of demand recovery.

Potassium chloride/potassium carbonate/calcium formate/iodide

1. Potassium chloride: This week, potassium chloride shifted from a one-sided downward trend to a pattern of low-price cancellations and sideways consolidation. Port inventories rose to 3.70–3.7882 million tons, up 129.89% year-on-year, with increases exceeding 2 million tons in Lianyungang and Zhenjiang ports. Continuous arrivals of imported supplies have ensured ample availability. Downstream compound fertilizer production is operating at only about 34%, with most buyers adopting a "purchase-as-needed" approach. Concentrated procurement during the mid-to-late September autumn sowing season may support a halt in price declines, but high inventory levels will limit upside potential, so short-term market movements are expected to remain volatile with gradual recovery. Purchase advice: Buy according to demand; consider locking in volumes in batches at current port lows, but avoid chasing falling prices for stockpiling.

2. This week, the calcium formate market has remained stable with a slight upward trend. Rising raw material prices for formic acid have provided cost support, making the short-term cost side relatively strong and prices more likely to rise than fall. Purchase recommendation: buy as needed, and consider negotiating volume with moderate price pressure based on formic acid price movements.

3. Iodine prices remained stable this week compared to last week.