Overall Market Highlight

Overall market outlook: Market divergence continues, with manganese strong, zinc stable, and minor products under pressure. Export orders for monohydrate manganese sulfate are overwhelming, leading to tight scheduling; zinc salts maintain firm prices supported by production cuts and cost factors, although weak seasonal demand limits upside potential; ferrous sulfate, calcium iodate, sodium selenite, cobalt chloride, and other products continue their downward trend due to collapsing costs or high inventory levels.

Second, operational guidance: manganese sulfate should be locked in promptly; zinc salts should be replenished as needed; copper salts and minor products should be procured flexibly based on market conditions, with attention to the risk of raw material price declines.

Week-on-week change: Month-on-month change:

	Unit	Week 4 of July	Week 5 of July	Week-on-week change	Average price in June	Average price in July	Month-on-month change	August 5 current price
Shanghai Metals Market #Zinc Ingots	Yuan per ton	24474	24686	↑212	24435	24523	↑88	25180
Shanghai Metals Market #Electrolytic Copper	Yuan per ton	105629	105512	↓117	104191	104393	↑202	107275
Shanghai Metals Market Australia Mn46% manganese ore	Yuan per ton	43.13	43.13	↑0.38	45.65	43.13	↑0.55	43.15
Business Society Import Refined Iodine Price	Yuan per ton	635000	635000	-	635000	635000	-	635000
Shanghai Metals Market Cobalt Chloride (co ≥ 24.2%)	Yuan per ton	100550	98900	↓1650	109940	101478	↓8462	96000
Shanghai Metals Market Selenium Dioxide	Yuan per kilogram	120	120	-	164.9	120.9	↓44	115
Titanium dioxide manufacturer capacity utilization rate	%	72.69	72.76	↑0.07	74.46	72.18	↓2.28

Zinc sulfate

Raw materials: Sulfuric acid prices remain stable

Supply side: operating rate at 47% (up 5% month-on-month), capacity utilization at 44% (up 3% month-on-month), with capacity remaining at low levels.

Demand side: Domestic feed demand has slightly recovered as meat, egg, and dairy prices rebounded, while fertilizer demand is supported only by limited purchases from large groups and specialty fertilizers. On the export front, shipping rates on South American routes have halted their decline and rebounded (+2% to 10%), but downstream buyers remain cautious, waiting for freight rate reductions.

Macro factors: The Fed held interest rates steady at its July meeting, U.S. core PCE inflation cooled, and the dollar index weakened, all of which are favorable for zinc prices. However, zinc concentrate processing fees dropped to -1,150 yuan per metric ton, worsening smelting losses and further strengthening support from the raw material side.

Price outlook: Driven by macroeconomic sentiment and supported by raw material costs, zinc prices are expected to hover around 24,700 yuan per ton next week, up from this week. The price of monohydrate zinc sulfate is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend.

Suggestion: Procure according to your inventory and needs.

Manganese sulfate

Raw materials: Manganese ore and sulfuric acid prices remain high and firm, providing solid cost support.

Supply side: Operating rate at 94% (unchanged), capacity utilization at 72% (unchanged), orders booked through late September, delivery tight, supply side running at full capacity.

Demand side: Exports are booming—foreign manganese sulfate producers continue to shut down, shifting orders to domestic suppliers, with export backlogs extending into late September. On the domestic front, feed demand is recovering and fertilizer purchases during the off-season remain steady, but the surge in exports alone is sufficient to ensure ample order volumes for manufacturers.

Macro factors: No direct macroeconomic factors; primarily driven by international capacity relocation and downstream inventory replenishment.

Price outlook: Supply and demand remain strong, keeping prices stable; tight delivery conditions are expected to continue. We recommend securing quantities and prices in advance and placing orders during off-peak periods.

Ferrous sulfate

Raw materials: No significant support on the cost side.

Supply side: Operating rate at 67% (unchanged), capacity utilization at 27% (unchanged), high inventory pressure, supply remains loose

Demand side: There are no signs of improvement in demand, orders remain weak, and the supply-demand balance is unlikely to reverse in the short term.

Macro factors: No direct macroeconomic impact.

Price outlook: Further decline cannot be ruled out; flexible procurement is recommended, with a wait-and-see approach being the main strategy.

Copper sulfate/basic copper chloride

Raw materials: Etching solution supply is tight, with more being directed toward intermediate products such as sponge copper, reducing the proportion used for copper sulfate.

Supply side: Operating rate at 100% (unchanged), capacity utilization at 42% (unchanged), with significant flexibility

Factors: ① Copper prices declined slightly this week due to easing concerns over Chilean copper mining and rising social inventories; ② Outlook for next week: Middle East conflict calming down + U.S. inflation cooling → weaker dollar → supporting copper prices. Supply remains ample, demand is in a slow season, but macroeconomic factors are dominant. Forecast for next week's copper price range: 105,500–106,500 yuan/ton, up from this week.

3) Outlook for future trends:

Price outlook: Copper sulfate prices are likely to fluctuate in line with copper market prices, but the actual increase will depend on a combination of factors including raw material supply (etching solution flow), manufacturers' overall costs, and downstream purchasing intentions.

Suggestion: Flexibly schedule procurement based on production pace and inventory levels.

1) Current price trend

Magnesium sulfate/magnesium oxide

In terms of raw materials: Magnesium oxide prices have remained stable recently, with environmental enforcement slightly easing, and some small-scale factories resuming production, which may lead to slight softening in magnesium oxide prices. Sulfur prices continue to rise, while sulfuric acid prices remain high, keeping magnesium sulfate at elevated levels with sideways consolidation, and monohydrate magnesium showing steady increases. The strong demand from animal farming during peak season provides a solid foundation, and high raw material and energy costs support the market. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate on an upward trend, making future price increases more likely than declines. It is recommended to replenish inventory gradually according to actual needs.

Calcium iodate

The iodine market is trading weak at higher levels, supported by firm raw material prices of refined iodine that provide cost underpinning, with ample supply. Downstream feed buyers are only placing small orders to meet immediate needs, resulting in sluggish trading activity. Prices are expected to remain slightly weak in the short term. Buyers should replenish according to demand.

Sodium selenite

As a by-product of copper smelting, crude selenium continues to be released into the market, but due to the lack of concentrated procurement, prices remain range-bound. The selenium dioxide market follows the trend of crude selenium, with weak demand from the metallurgical sector and insufficient upward momentum. Sodium selenite has seen continuous price reductions recently due to lower production costs. Downstream premix manufacturers are mostly purchasing as needed, with no significant stockpiling observed. In the short term, the supply chain lacks positive stimuli, and overall sentiment remains cautious. Buyers are adopting a purchase-on-demand approach.

Cobalt chloride

This week, trading in cobalt sulfate and cobalt chloride markets remained sluggish. Cobalt sulfate prices showed divergent supply-demand dynamics, with primary producers holding firm while recyclers sold at low prices; inquiries for cobalt chloride were sparse. Downstream major companies maintained ample inventories, with only small and medium-sized enterprises making limited purchases based on immediate needs. The downward trend in electrolytic cobalt dampened buying sentiment, resulting in a wide price gap between buyers and sellers. In the short term, cobalt salts are expected to remain volatile and weak, with market recovery pending concentrated restocking by downstream players. We recommend purchasing according to actual demand.

Potassium chloride/potassium carbonate/calcium formate/iodide

1. Potassium chloride: Current port inventories have risen to around 3.3 million tons, significantly exceeding the same period last year. With autumn fertilizer demand yet to fully materialize, market pressure remains and actual transaction prices continue to decline. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz persist, limiting further downside. In the short term, prices are expected to remain weak and volatile. Watch for signs of autumn fertilizer procurement activity in mid-to-late August; once demand picks up, prices may stabilize and recover slightly, though a sharp rebound is unlikely. Supply should be replenished according to actual needs.

2. Formic acid prices weakened amid seasonal sluggishness, with downstream buyers only replenishing essential supplies, leading to limited market transactions. With weak feed demand, calcium formate prices declined, and the market is likely to remain narrowly range-bound in the short term. It is advisable to cautiously manage inventory based on actual demand.

3. Iodine prices remained stable this week compared to last week.