Overall market outlook: Market divergence continues. On the macro level, positive progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks combined with consecutive weakening U.S. employment data has led to a decline in the dollar index, increasing market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, providing temporary supportive factors for non-ferrous metals (copper and zinc).

Week-on-week change: Month-on-month change:

	Unit	Week 5 of July	Week 1 of August	Week-on-week change	Average price in July	Average price as of August 7	Month-on-month change	August 11 current price
Shanghai Metals Market #Zinc Ingots	Yuan per ton	24686	25284	↑598	24523	25284	↑761	25510
Shanghai Metals Market #Electrolytic Copper	Yuan per ton	105512	107340	↑1828	104393	107340	↑2947	108585
Shanghai Metals Market Australia Mn46% manganese ore	Yuan per ton	43.13	43.13	↑0.32	43.13	43.13	↑0.6	43.15
Business Society Import Refined Iodine Price	Yuan per ton	635000	635000	-	635000	635000	-	635000
Shanghai Metals Market Cobalt Chloride (co ≥ 24.2%)	Yuan per ton	98900	96000	↓2900	101478	96000	↓5478	93000
Shanghai Metals Market Selenium Dioxide	Yuan per kilogram	120	116	↓4	120.9	116	↓4.9	115
Titanium dioxide manufacturer capacity utilization rate	%	72.76	72.71	↓0.05	72.18	72.71	↑0.53

Zinc sulfate

Raw materials: Sulfuric acid prices remain stable

Supply side: Operating rate at 47% (unchanged), capacity utilization at 41% (down 3% from the previous period), with capacity remaining low.

Demand side: Domestic feed demand has improved slightly as meat, egg, and dairy prices rebounded, while fertilizer demand remains supported only by limited purchases from large groups and specialty fertilizers. On the export front, shipping rates for South America routes have halted their decline and rebounded (+2% to 10%), but downstream buyers remain cautious, waiting for freight rate reductions.

Macro factors: A weaker dollar index (due to progress in U.S.-Iran talks and soft U.S. employment data) supported zinc prices, but rising social inventories—reaching over 270,000 tons during the weak consumption season—limited the upside.

Price Outlook: Zinc prices are expected to hover around 25,500 yuan/ton next week (this week: 25,284 yuan/ton). With both cost and demand factors aligning, the price of zinc sulfate monohydrate is more likely to rise than fall—prompt locking in orders is recommended.

Suggestion: Procure according to your inventory and needs.

Manganese sulfate

Raw materials: Manganese ore and sulfuric acid prices remain high and firm, providing solid cost support.

Supply side: Operating rate at 94% (unchanged), capacity utilization at 72% (unchanged), orders booked through the end of September, delivery tight, supply side running at full capacity.

Demand side: Export demand is strong—foreign manganese sulfate producers continue to shut down, shifting orders to domestic suppliers, with export backlogs extending into late September. On the domestic front, feed demand is recovering and fertilizer purchases are steady during the off-season, but the increase in exports alone is sufficient to ensure ample order volumes for manufacturers.

Macro factors: No direct macroeconomic factors; primarily driven by international capacity relocation and downstream inventory replenishment.

Price outlook: Export long-term contracts are secured, keeping short-term prices stable; we recommend locking in volumes and prices early, prioritizing capacity for mid-to-early September.

Ferrous sulfate

Raw materials: Overall, raw material prices have remained relatively stable, without creating additional pressure.

Supply side: Manufacturers significantly cut production to the lowest level of the year, halting a four-day consecutive price decline.

Demand side: Downstream feed industry remains in the off-season, with weak procurement and purchases driven mainly by essential needs.

Macro factors: No direct macroeconomic impact.

Price outlook: Inventory digestion will take time, so prices are expected to remain stable in the short term with insufficient upward momentum. We recommend that those with ample inventory wait and observe, while essential buyers should purchase according to their needs.

Copper sulfate/basic copper chloride

Raw materials: Etching solution supply is tight, with more being directed toward intermediate products such as sponge copper, reducing the proportion used for copper sulfate.

Supply side: Operating rate at 100% (unchanged), capacity utilization at 42% (unchanged), with significant flexibility

Factors: ① Progress in U.S.-Iran talks + weak U.S. ADP and non-farm payroll data → decline in the dollar index → rising expectations for rate cuts → copper prices surge (up 1,828 yuan/ton for the week). Next week, focus on U.S. CPI/PPI data; if inflation cools further, it will continue to benefit metals.

1) Current price trend

3) Outlook for future trends:

The U.S. non-farm payroll data came in weaker than expected, reducing the urgency of near-term tightening by the Federal Reserve and lowering carrying costs for dollar-denominated metals. However, ongoing volatility in the Middle East and persistent expectations of rate hikes continue to exert macroeconomic pressure. On the industrial side, sentiment has turned bearish due to Indonesia's resumption of production, but low domestic social inventories, a sharp drop in LME stocks, and strong U.S. demand provide core support. High copper prices have triggered negative feedback, leading to weak spot trading activity, prompting a short-term correction at elevated levels. In the medium to long term, the fundamental logic of rigid supply gaps from mining and growing new demand remains unchanged, maintaining an overall bullish trend. Copper is currently the most fundamentally sound metal within the non-ferrous sector. On the supply side, global copper concentrate processing fees have fallen to their lowest level since 2021, with inventory levels outside the U.S. providing the strongest support for prices. Demand shows structural divergence: traditional sectors such as real estate and home appliances face drag from seasonal weakness and high temperatures, causing a broad decline in downstream operating rates. Meanwhile, high-growth areas including AI computing power, new energy, and grid investment have offset these declines and generated net demand growth. Copper prices are expected to remain range-bound at higher levels.

Price Outlook: Copper sulfate prices are likely to fluctuate in line with copper market prices, but the actual increase will depend on a combination of factors including raw material supply (etching solution flow), manufacturers' overall costs, and downstream purchasing intentions.

Suggestion: Flexibly schedule procurement based on production pace and inventory levels.

Magnesium sulfate/magnesium oxide

In terms of raw materials: feed-grade magnesium oxide supply has tightened due to environmental regulations on magnesite, causing prices to fluctuate at high levels; feed-grade magnesium sulfate is supported from below by sulfur costs. With strong demand during the breeding season providing a floor and energy and raw material costs remaining elevated, short-term market conditions are expected to remain firm with moderate volatility. Prices are likely to rise more easily than fall in the near future, so we recommend replenishing inventory in batches according to actual needs.

Calcium iodate

The iodine market is trading weak at higher levels, supported by firm raw material prices of refined iodine that provide cost underpinning, with ample supply. Downstream feed buyers are only replenishing small orders based on immediate needs, resulting in sluggish trading activity. Prices are expected to remain slightly weak in the short term. Buyers should restock as needed.

Sodium selenite

As a by-product of copper smelting, crude selenium continues to be released into the market, but due to the lack of concentrated procurement, prices remain range-bound. The selenium dioxide market moves in tandem with crude selenium, while demand from the metallurgical sector remains weak, lacking upward momentum. Sodium selenite has seen ongoing price reductions recently due to lower production costs. Downstream premix manufacturers are mostly purchasing as needed, with no significant stockpiling observed. In the short term, the supply chain lacks positive catalysts, and overall sentiment remains cautious. Buyers are adopting a wait-and-see approach, purchasing according to demand.

Cobalt chloride

This week, the cobalt salt market saw sluggish trading activity amid a stalemate between upstream and downstream players. Primary smelters maintained high quotations supported by raw material costs, while recycled suppliers showed divergent pricing—some sources further declined in price, leading to lower-level transactions. Downstream demand remained weak overall, with purchasing intentions continuing to weaken. Short-term prices still face downward pressure, and market stabilization and recovery will depend on the release of concentrated restocking demand from downstream sectors. We recommend procuring according to actual needs.

Potassium chloride/potassium carbonate/calcium formate/iodide

1.Potassium chloride: Current port inventories have risen to around 3.3 million tons, significantly exceeding the same period last year. With autumn fertilizer demand yet to fully materialize, market pressure persists and actual transaction prices continue to decline. Geopolitical factors, including ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Russia and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, limit further downside. In the short term, prices are expected to remain weak and volatile. Watch for signs of autumn fertilizer procurement activity in mid-to-late August; once demand picks up, a recovery is possible, though a sharp rebound remains unlikely. Supply should be replenished according to actual needs.

2.Formic acid prices weakened amid seasonal demand slowdown, with downstream buyers only replenishing essential stocks, leading to limited market transactions. Weak feed demand has pushed calcium formate prices downward, and the market is likely to remain narrowly range-bound in the short term. It is advisable to cautiously manage inventory based on actual demand.

3.Iodine prices remained stable this week compared to last week.