Overall market outlook: Since August, the trace element market has shown a polarized trend. Zinc salts such as zinc sulfate monohydrate and active zinc oxide have seen strong price resilience due to rising zinc prices driving up production costs. Copper sulfate followed suit amid improved macroeconomic sentiment. In contrast, cobalt chloride and sodium selenite continued their downward trajectory due to oversupply. The zinc network price surged by over 1,000 yuan in August, providing solid cost support for zinc salt products. With low processing fees for zinc concentrate, along with macroeconomic and financial momentum, zinc prices are expected to rise further next week.

Week-on-week change: Month-on-month change:

	Unit	Week 3 of August	Week 4 of August	Week-on-week change	Average price in July	Average price as of August 28	Month-on-month change	September 3 current price
Shanghai Metals Market #Zinc Ingots	Yuan per ton	25429	26081	↑652	24523	25569	↑1046	26785
Shanghai Metals Market #Electrolytic Copper	Yuan per ton	108071	108989	↑918	104393	108164	↑3771	109345
Shanghai Metals Market Australia Mn46% manganese ore	Yuan per ton	42.9	42.9	-	43.13	42.9	↑0.6	42.9
Business Society Import Refined Iodine Price	Yuan per ton	635000	635000	-	635000	635000	-	635000
Shanghai Metals Market Cobalt Chloride (co ≥ 24.2%)	Yuan per ton	89000	87200	↓1800	101478	92067	↓10628	86000
Shanghai Metals Market Selenium Dioxide	Yuan per kilogram	115	115	-	120.9	115.33	↓5.65	114
Titanium dioxide manufacturer capacity utilization rate	%	71.95	71.55	↓0.4	72.18	72.05	↓0.13

Zinc sulfate

Raw materials: Sulfuric acid prices show significant regional divergence. Supply of secondary zinc oxide remains tight, with high transaction coefficients maintaining strong cost support. Regarding zinc prices, both U.S.-Iran sanctions and hawkish Federal Reserve minutes have weighed on prices, but processing fees remain stable at 1,550 yuan per metric ton, limiting downside potential due to solid cost underpinnings. Since August, zinc prices have risen continuously, increasing by 875 yuan compared to July by the third week, providing strong cost support for products.

Supply side: The operating rate of zinc sulfate monohydrate is 55%, with a capacity utilization rate of 42% (up 5%). Orders are booked through early October (25–30 days), with order volume remaining stable. Production restrictions have intensified, and market supply is expected to tighten.

Demand side: On the domestic front, the feed industry is benefiting from the approaching peak season and increased livestock feed consumption, leading to steady demand growth. In the fertilizer sector, compound fertilizers are seeing a boost in demand as the autumn application season begins, while procurement cycles for specialty fertilizers have already started. On the export side, shipping costs on the South America route have risen by 9%—reaching their highest level of the year. Under high freight rates, customers have shifted from bulk stockpiling to demand-driven purchasing. However, as overseas end-user demand gradually picks up, export orders are showing a steady increase.

Macro factors: Dual pressures from U.S.-Iran sanctions and hawkish Fed minutes have exerted some downward pressure on zinc prices, but low processing fees and strong cost support have limited the downside potential.

Price Outlook: With the arrival of the consumption peak season, downstream demand is gradually recovering. Supported by high zinc market prices, zinc sulfate monohydrate led the price increase this week. With both rising costs and demand recovery driving the market, further upward price movement is expected.

Suggestion: Procure based on your current inventory and actual needs.

Manganese sulfate

Raw materials: Sulfuric acid prices remained stable, while manganese ore prices held firm at high levels. Manganese ore inventory at Qinzhou Port continued to decline, supporting steady to slightly rising ore prices—high-grade Australian concentrate at 38–38.5 yuan per tonne-degree, South African semi-carbonate at 35.5–36 yuan per tonne-degree, and Australian lump at 40.5–41 yuan per tonne-degree. Sustained high sulfuric acid prices, combined with declining manganese ore inventories and upward price momentum, provided favorable conditions.

Supply side: The operating rate of monohydrate manganese sulfate is 94% (unchanged), with a capacity utilization rate of 73% (unchanged). Orders are backlogged for 55–60 days (scheduled through early October), and order volume remains stable. Long-term contract orders account for a relatively high proportion.

Demand side: Domestically, feed demand has shown signs of recovery, while increased capacity utilization in fertilizer and compound fertilizer production, along with the initiation of procurement for specialty fertilizers, has driven additional demand. On the export front, although some overseas manufacturers have resumed operations, existing orders extending into early October continue to support prices. Demand for manganese sulfate has strengthened, boosted by rising production and export volumes of ternary precursors.

Macro factors: No direct macroeconomic factors; primarily driven by international capacity relocation and downstream inventory replenishment.

Price outlook: The manganese sulfate market is expected to remain stable with a slightly upward trend in the short term.

Ferrous sulfate

Raw materials: Titanium dioxide production capacity remains around 75%, and the supply of by-product crude ferrous sulfate has not tightened. Support from raw materials is weak, resulting in only slight price stabilization with no significant increase.

Supply side: Recently, demand for ferrous sulfate heptahydrate in the downstream lithium iron phosphate market has been weak. Some titanium dioxide producers have resumed operations of their ferrous sulfate monohydrate production lines to absorb the by-product ferrous sulfate heptahydrate, boosting the overall operating rate to 67% (up 17% month-on-month) and capacity utilization to 23% (up 12% month-on-month). However, inventory levels of feed-grade ferrous sulfate monohydrate remain high, with slow digestion, and supply pressure remains unchanged.

Demand side: Downstream feed demand has slightly recovered, with purchases mainly driven by essential needs and limited additional volume. Feed mills are showing weak demand, replenishing inventories sporadically as needed, without any concentrated stockpiling. High inventory levels will still require time to work through.

Macro factors: No direct macroeconomic impact.

Price outlook: As the price of ferrous sulfate has continued to decline over the past two months, approaching production cost levels, market quotations have stabilized with a wait-and-see attitude.

Copper sulfate/basic copper chloride

Raw materials: Etching solution supply is tight, with more being directed toward intermediate products such as sponge copper, reducing the proportion used for copper sulfate.

Supply side: Copper sulfate production capacity utilization rate is 100% (unchanged), and capacity utilization stands at 42% (unchanged). Affected by the typhoon, import copper shipments have been delayed. Combined with increased exports from smelters, domestic supply has tightened, and social inventory continues to decline.

1) Outlook for future trends:

Fed Chair Wash delivered a hawkish signal at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, stating that inflation remains elevated. Although recent data has shown some slowdown, it is still insufficient to confirm a sustained improvement trend. Only when underlying inflation continues and clearly moves toward the 2% target will there be sufficient justification for a policy shift; otherwise, tightening measures will persist. On the domestic front, fundamentals also provide solid support: inventories have dropped to a two-and-a-half-year low, and with the peak "Golden September" season approaching alongside strong momentum in emerging sectors, copper prices are well supported from below. However, investors must remain highly vigilant about potential abnormal volatility triggered by a sudden implementation of the 232 tariff policy. Overall, amid rising expectations of Fed rate hikes, although copper prices face short-term pressure, they have demonstrated the strongest resilience against declines among non-ferrous metals. Supply disruptions continue, pushing domestic copper concentrate processing fees into historically low negative territory, maintaining tight supply conditions. The intense tug-of-war between macroeconomic headwinds and fundamental tailwinds makes copper prices more prone to rise than fall. Copper prices are expected to remain range-bound at high levels.

Price Outlook: We anticipate copper prices next week to range between 109,000 and 110,000 yuan per ton. With ongoing macroeconomic support and the approaching peak demand season, downstream procurement demand is gradually emerging, providing further upward momentum for copper prices. However, due to its own supply-demand dynamics, copper sulfate's price increase will be limited.

Suggestion: Flexibly schedule procurement based on production pace and inventory levels.

1) Current price trend

Magnesium sulfate/magnesium oxide

In terms of raw materials: The magnesium market remained stable this week, unchanged from last week. With the traditional off-season in August leading to sluggish trading and production sides replenishing inventory only as needed, market sentiment remains cautious. Haicheng, Liaoning has phased out all old-style magnesia reverberatory kilns. Combined with ore shortages and slow release of new capacity, supply of light-burnt magnesium powder is tight, driving prices higher, accelerating the industry's green and intensive transformation. Procurement advice: Replenish magnesium sulfate and magnesium oxide in batches according to demand, maintaining moderate stock levels.

Calcium iodate

The iodine market remained stable at high levels this week. Strong raw material prices for refined iodine provided cost support, while manufacturers maintained steady production and sufficient supply. Downstream feed companies only placed small orders based on immediate needs. Purchase recommendation: With high cost support for refined iodine, calcium iodate is likely to rise and difficult to fall; moderate stockpiling is advisable.

Sodium selenite

This week, the selenium market remained stable with sluggish trading. As a by-product of copper smelting, crude selenium continued to be steadily released, maintaining stable supply. Downstream buyers only made purchases based on immediate needs, without significant bulk buying, leading to a prevailing sentiment of market caution. Purchase recommendation: With raw material prices stable, sodium selenite can be procured as needed—there is no need for advance stockpiling.

Cobalt chloride

This week, cobalt salts weakened and bottomed out before stabilizing. On the raw material side, spot cobalt costs have declined, weakening cost support. Low-price transactions from Indonesia have impacted the market, while downstream reference prices remain below 63,000 yuan per ton, resulting in a wide bid-ask spread and sluggish trading. As the "golden September and silver October" period approaches, downstream procurement demand is gradually emerging, and prices may stabilize after declining steadily from late August to early September. Procurement advice: purchase according to needs and at a controlled pace—avoid chasing lows or stockpiling, and watch for signals of concentrated buying in September.

Potassium chloride/potassium carbonate/calcium formate/iodide

1. Potassium chloride: This week, potassium chloride continued to weaken, with prices stable on the surface but declining in practice. Port inventories rose to a record high of 3.70–3.74 million tons, maintaining an oversupply situation. Policy-driven prices remain temporarily stable, but low-cost non-mainstream supplies continue to suppress transaction levels, strengthening dealers' willingness to sell and realize profits. A concentrated start to autumn fertilizer procurement in early September may help halt the downward trend and stabilize prices. Purchase recommendation: Buy according to demand; consider locking in volumes at lower prices, but avoid stockpiling.

2. This week, the calcium formate market continued to trade within a narrow range. With stable raw material prices and ongoing cost support, price differences mainly stem from brand and regional variations. Downstream buyers are only replenishing based on immediate needs, resulting in limited transactions and overall market stability. Purchase recommendation: Buy as needed, with room for slight price negotiation depending on volume.

3. Iodine prices remained stable this week compared to last week.