Overall Market Highlight

Overall trend: Market divergence continues, with each side's fundamentals leading the market. Orders for manganese sulfate are abundant and prices are firm; Zinc salt costs support supply divergence, the bottom is solid; Diluents are under pressure as both supply and demand are weak.

Next week's focus: On the macro side, pay attention to the speeches of the FOMC voting committee of the Federal Reserve and the domestic July LPR data to determine the direction of fluctuations in the prices of metals such as copper and zinc; At the industry level, pay attention to the delivery of orders from manganese sulfate monohydrate manufacturers (which is related to whether orders can be locked in time); The sustainability of zinc salt producers' production cuts (determining the strength of bottom support); The price trend of diluent raw materials (to determine if there is still room for it to go down).

I，Analysis of non-ferrous metals

Week-on-week: Month-on-month:

	Units	Week 2 of July	Week 3 of July	Week-on-week changes	Average price in June	Average price as of July 17	Month-on-month changes	Current price on July 14
Shanghai Metals Market # Zinc ingots	Yuan/ton	24537	24568	↑31	24435	24480	↑45	24325
Shanghai Metals Network # Electrolytic copper	Yuan/ton	103236	104320	↑1084	104191	103487	↓704	105285
Shanghai Metals AustraliaMn46% manganese ore	Yuan/ton	43.45	43.31	↑0.08	45.65	43.15	↑0.5	43.15
The price of imported refined iodine by Business Society	Yuan/ton	635000	635000	-	635000	635000	-	635000
Shanghai Metals Market Cobalt Chloride(co≥24.2%)	Yuan/ton	103000	102000	↓1000	109940	102827	↓7113	101000
Shanghai Metals Market Selenium Dioxide	Yuan/kilogram	121	120	↓1	164.9	121.54	↓43.36	120
Capacity utilization rate of titanium dioxide manufacturers	%	71.91	71.53	↓0.38	74.46	71.81	↓2.65

Zinc sulfate

Raw material side: High abundance of zinc hypooxide, tight supply, high transaction coefficient; Sulfuric acid prices vary by region. Overall cost support is strong.

Supply-side: Operating rate 63% (compared with ↑5%), capacity utilization rate 55% (↑15%), market supply remains at a low level throughout the year.

Demand: The domestic feed industry purchases on demand, and only group and specialty fertilizers provide a small amount of support; On the export side, ocean freight rates on the South American route have dropped by 17-19%, but the absolute cost is still 76-107% higher than the normal period, and customers are waiting and watching for further reduction in freight rates. The off-season consumption features are obvious.

Macro factors: The escalation of the US-Iran geopolitical conflict and the postponement of expectations of Fed rate hikes boost market sentiment and benefit zinc prices; But the processing fee for zinc concentrate dropped to -750 yuan per gold ton (a record low), smelting losses intensified, industry maintenance and production control intensified, and the raw material side strongly supported.
Price forecast: Driven by macro sentiment, zinc prices are expected to be around 24,590 yuan per ton next week, up from this week. Zinc sulfate monohydrate has seen a respite and is expected to hold steady, but lacks upward momentum.

Advice: Buy as needed based on your own inventory.

Manganese sulfate

Raw material side: High and firm prices of manganese ore and sulfuric acid build a solid cost bottom. Qinzhou Port Gabon Seed Mn41% manganese ore rose slightly by 0.08 yuan per tonne to 38.00 yuan per tonne week-on-week, and the average monthly price also increased.

Supply side: Operating rate 94% (month-on-month ↑13%), capacity utilization rate 72% (↑10%), extremely high operating rate; Orders are scheduled until mid-September (55-60 days), and manufacturers are tight on delivery.

Demand side: Foreign manganese sulfate manufacturers continue to suspend production, export orders shift to China, exports are booming; Traditional downstream products such as feed and fertilizer are in the off-season, maintaining on-demand purchasing. Export increments dominate demand.

Macro factors: Structural opportunities brought about by changes in the global manganese supply pattern (shutdowns abroad), the impact of macro factors is relatively indirect.

Price forecast: Solid costs + full export orders, prices remain stable and strong. Trading advice: Lock in orders in a timely manner and replenish inventory.

Ferrous sulfate

Raw material side: Prices of ferrous heptahydrate raw materials have declined in some regions, weakening cost support

Supply side: Orders from manufacturers have further declined, inventory pressure has soared, and quotations from manufacturers have dropped again. Demand remains sluggish with no sign of improvement, and the supply and demand pattern is unlikely to reverse in the short term.

Demand side: Downstream purchases on demand, no significant increase in demand.

Macro factors: No direct macro impact.

Price forecast: High inventory levels are unlikely to change in the short term, supply and demand patterns are unlikely to reverse, the possibility of further decline is not ruled out, weakest fundamentals.

Copper sulfate/basic copper chloride

Raw material end: Tight supply of etching solution, more flowing to intermediate products such as sponge copper, the share used for copper sulfate is narrowing.

Supply side: Operating rate 100% (flat), capacity utilization rate 42% (flat), greater flexibility

Factors: The failure of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement pushed up oil prices and intensified inflation concerns, the copper market maintained a tight balance with low inventories, and consumption was difficult to increase during the off-season amid rising demand concerns. The biggest point of contention in the copper market at present lies in the tariff expectations triggered by the US Section 232 investigation. Despite the absence of tariffs on refined copper, market sentiment has led to an extreme structural divergence in global inventories. This "siphon effect" has not only widened the price gap across markets but also led to hidden shortages in non-US markets. The implementation of the domestic battery consumption tax policy has provided structural support for copper's long-term demand, while TC's continued slow decline and accelerated inventory reduction have formed a solid bottom line for copper prices. However, the hawkish expectations of the Federal Reserve and the frequent disturbances of the Middle East geopolitical conflict still constitute macro-level suppression. Copper prices are expected to remain volatile.

3) Outlook for future trends:

Price forecast: The core range for copper prices next week is expected to be 104,000-105,000 yuan per ton (up from this week). The price of copper sulfate is likely to fluctuate with the copper network price, but the increase is constrained by the diversion of raw materials, combined costs and the purchasing intentions of downstream. It has followed suit this week, showing strong resilience.

Suggestion: Purchase flexibly and opportunistically based on the production rhythm and inventory.

1) Current price trend

2) Copper price trend over the past five years (2021-2026) : Summary of the five-year trend: Upward - pullback - sideways - breakout again - High consolidation. It is currently at its highest point in nearly five years.

Magnesium sulfate/magnesium oxide

In terms of raw materials: The price of magnesium oxide has been stable recently. The crackdown on environmental protection has been slightly reduced, and the price of magnesium oxide may loosen as some small factories resume production. Sulfur prices have continued to rise, sulfuric acid prices have remained high, magnesium sulfate has been consolidating at a high level, and magnesium monohydrate has risen steadily. The peak season for aquaculture has bottomed out, raw material and energy costs are high, the short-term market is strong and volatile, and it is more likely to rise than fall in the future market. It is recommended to replenish stocks in batches as needed.

Calcium iodate

The iodine market is at a high level but weak. The raw material refined iodine is firm, providing cost support. Manufacturers operate smoothly and have sufficient supply. Downstream feed is only replenished with small orders of essential demand, trading is light, short-term prices are slightly weak. Replenish as needed.

Sodium selenite

Crude selenium fluctuates at a low level, with abundant supply of by-products from smelting and light trading; Selenium dioxide is weak along with raw materials. Feed-grade sodium selenite stabilizes prices based on the strong demand from aquaculture, with upstream costs as a support. The overall market is on the watch, and the short-term trend of a narrow range of weak stability continues. Buy on demand.

Cobalt chloride

Cobalt chloride, cobalt oxide, lithium cobalt oxide synchronous oscillation consolidation. Cobalt chloride stopped falling and tried to raise prices, but trading was sluggish; Cobalt tetroxide is consolidating with weak demand; Lithium cobalt oxide came under pressure, lithium carbonate's rise did not drive quotations, and the overall price remained stable. Buy on demand.

Potassium chloride/potassium carbonate/calcium formate/iodide

1. Potassium chloride: Electrolytic cobalt fluctuated in a range last week, cobalt intermediate and cobalt sulfate weakened simultaneously. The supply and demand of cobalt salts are divided. Primary factories hold prices, recycled sources hit the market at low prices, downstream stockpiling willingness is low, the replenishment cycle is delayed, and there is no short-term recovery. It is recommended to purchase according to demand.

2. Domestic formic acid rose continuously in the first ten days of July before stabilizing, with prices significantly higher than at the beginning of the month. Earlier improvements in shipments brought inventories back to a reasonable range, supporting the bottom of the market; But downstream consumption is weak during the off-season and lacks upward momentum, so the market will continue to fluctuate sideways in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious about stockpiling based on demand.

3. Iodide prices remained stable this week compared to last week.