Overall Market Highlight

Overall trend: The core feature of the market this week is "macro gives way to industries, supply and demand determine ups and downs." Instead of flooding the market with all the same gains and losses, each variety moves independently based on the contradictions in its own supply chain, presenting an overall pattern of "one strong, two differentials, three weaknesses" :

"One strong one rises alone (export logic) : Manganese sulfate monohydrate is the strongest variety this week. The core driving force comes from a surge in export orders due to the overseas supply gap (production halt at foreign factories), with production scheduled until mid to late September, and domestic off-season demand has had little impact on it.

"Zinc salt" internal divergence (cost support vs inventory pressure) : Both belong to the zinc supply chain, but the trend varies due to different production control efforts. Monohydrate zinc and active zinc benefit from active deep cuts in production and high costs of secondary zinc oxide, with tight supply and firm prices; While production of heptahydrate was also controlled, it was difficult to offset the high inventory pressure, coupled with weak demand for chemical fibers and mineral processing, and the price was under pressure to fall.

"Small varieties" are generally weak (cost collapse + shrinking demand) : Varieties such as ferrous sulfate and sodium selenite are in a "double kill" situation, with raw materials falling and demand weak, prices continue to decline; Calcium iodate and cobalt chloride are in a stalemate of weak equilibrium due to both weak supply and demand.
Next week's focus: Weekly macro volatility will widen, and copper, zinc and copper sulfate will be the first to be affected if the macro is bearish (hawkish/strong dollar), while manganese sulfate monohydrate will remain strong due to independent export logic; If the macro is positive (dovish/weak dollar), the bottom support for zinc salts will be stronger

I，Analysis of Nonferrous metals

Week-on-week: Month-on-month:

	Units	Week 3 of July	Week 4 of July	Week-on-week changes	Average price in June	Average price as of July 24	Month-on-month changes
Shanghai Metals Market # Zinc Ingots	Yuan/ton	24568	24474	↓94	24435	24478	↑43
Shanghai Metals Network # Electrolytic copper	Yuan/ton	104320	105629	↑1309	104191	104082	↓109
Shanghai Metals Network AustraliaMn46% manganese ore	Yuan/ton	43.31	43.13	↓0.2	45.65	43.13	↑0.49
The price of imported refined iodine by Business Society	Yuan/ton	635000	635000	-	635000	635000	-
Shanghai Metals Market Cobalt Chloride(co≥24.2%	Yuan/ton	102000	100550	↓1450	109940	102194	↓7746
Shanghai Metals Market Selenium Dioxide	Yuan/kilogram	120	120	-	164.9	121.11	↓43.79
Capacity utilization rate of titanium dioxide manufacturers	%	71.53	72.69	↑1.16	74.46	72.03	↓2.43

Zinc sulfate

Raw material side: Sulfuric acid prices remain stable

Supply side: Production cuts intensified, operating rate dropped to 42% (down 21% month-on-month), capacity utilization rate was only 41% (↓14%), the lowest for the year, supply tightened significantly.

On the demand side: Domestic feed purchases are made on demand, and fertilizers are supported by only a small amount from the group and specialty fertilizers; On the export side, freight rates in South America have dropped but absolute costs remain high, and downstream are waiting for further price cuts.

Macro factors: Social inventories of zinc ingots rose to 270,400 tons, making inventory reduction difficult; Weak real estate and infrastructure consumption; But zinc concentrate processing fees remained stable at -750 yuan per gold ton, and smelting losses propped up zinc prices.

Price forecast: Zinc prices are expected to be 24,430 yuan per ton next week (down from this week), but monohydrate zinc prices will remain stable and firm due to increased production cuts and cost rigidity. It is recommended to purchase on demand.

Suggestion: Purchase as needed based on your own inventory.

Manganese sulfate

On the raw material side: manganese ore and sulfuric acid prices are high and firm, and the cost bottom is solid.

Supply: Operating rate 94% (flat), capacity utilization rate 72% (flat), orders are scheduled until mid to late September (55-60 days), supply is tight

Demand: Foreign manganese sulfate manufacturers continue to suspend production, export orders shift to China, exports are booming; Traditional downstream products such as feed and fertilizer are in the off-season, maintaining on-demand purchasing. Export increments dominate demand.

Macro factors: No direct macro negative factors, the decline in logistics freight rates is beneficial to exports.

Price forecast: Stable and strong, prices firm. It is recommended to communicate production scheduling in advance and place orders off-peak to ensure delivery time.

Ferrous sulfate

Raw material side: No obvious support on the cost side.

Supply side: Operating rate 67% (flat), capacity utilization rate 27% (flat), high inventory backlog.

Demand: Downstream purchases on demand, no significant increase in demand.

Macro factors: No direct macro impact.

Price forecast: High inventory levels are unlikely to change in the short term, supply and demand patterns are unlikely to reverse, the possibility of further decline is not ruled out, weakest fundamentals.

Copper sulfate/basic copper chloride

Raw material end: Tight supply of etching solution, more flowing to intermediate products such as sponge copper, the share used for copper sulfate is narrowing.

Supply side: Operating rate 100% (flat), capacity utilization rate 42% (flat), greater flexibility

Factors: The mutual suspension of trading between the US and Iran has led to a sharp drop in oil prices, and the pressure of inflation and interest rate hikes has marginally eased. The weakening of the US dollar has been beneficial to copper prices. Disturbances at the mining end have increased or decreased simultaneously. The low inventory of copper in London and the new low of domestic social reserves provide support. However, the high copper prices have suppressed the downstream essential demand, and the partial cancellation of warehouse receipts for copper in London has increased the available supply. Among the nonferrous metals sector, copper has the strongest fundamentals. Despite the cooling of the US-Iran situation, the upward logic of copper prices has not been shaken. On the one hand, the unresolved US tariffs on copper have prompted global traders to take advantage of the window period to ship copper to the US, and this "siphon effect" has led to extremely tight spot prices in non-US regions, especially domestically and on the LME. Domestic inventories have dropped to their lowest level since 2024, spot premiums are high, and holders have a strong willingness to hold prices. On the other hand, the demand side is showing the feature of "not being weak in the off-season". Under the effect of tariffs, Lme copper inventories dropped to a four-and-a-half-month low. Overseas mines saw mixed increases and decreases in output, but the overall increase was limited and difficult to change the tight balance between supply and demand. Copper prices are expected to remain strong.

3) Outlook for future trends:

Price forecast: Copper prices surge this week due to disruptions in raw material supply caused by mudslides in Chile; But next week is expected to be dominated by macro negative factors (Middle East conflict, a stronger US dollar), and copper prices are under pressure, with the core range expected to be 103,500-104,500 yuan per ton. There is a high probability that copper prices will fall next week, and the actual decline will depend on raw material supply and manufacturer costs. It is recommended to purchase flexibly at the right time.

Suggestion: Purchase flexibly based on production rhythm and inventory.

1) Current price trend

2) Copper price trend over the past five years (2021-2026) : Summary of the five-year trend: Upward - pullback - sideways - breakout again - High consolidation. It is currently at its highest point in nearly five years.

Magnesium sulfate/magnesium oxide

In terms of raw materials: The price of magnesium oxide has been stable recently. The crackdown on environmental protection has been slightly reduced, and the price of magnesium oxide may loosen as some small factories resume production. Sulfur prices have continued to rise, sulfuric acid prices have remained high, magnesium sulfate has been consolidating at a high level, and magnesium monohydrate has risen steadily. The peak season for aquaculture has bottomed out, raw material and energy costs are high, the short-term market is strong and volatile, and it is more likely to rise than fall in the future market. It is recommended to replenish stocks in batches as needed.

Calcium iodate

The iodine market is at a high level but weak. The raw material refined iodine is firm, providing cost support. Manufacturers operate smoothly and have sufficient supply. Downstream feed is only replenished with small orders of essential demand, trading is light, short-term prices are slightly weak. Replenish as needed.

Sodium selenite

Crude selenium fluctuates at a low level, with abundant supply of by-products from smelting and light trading; Selenium dioxide is weak along with raw materials. Feed-grade sodium selenite stabilizes prices based on the strong demand from aquaculture, with upstream costs as a support. The overall market is on the watch, and the short-term trend of a narrow range of weak stability continues. Buy on demand.

Cobalt chloride

Cobalt chloride, cobalt oxide, lithium cobalt oxide synchronous oscillation consolidation. Cobalt chloride stopped falling and tried to raise prices, but trading was sluggish; Cobalt tetroxide is consolidating with weak demand; Lithium cobalt oxide came under pressure, lithium carbonate's rise did not drive quotations, and the overall price remained stable. Buy on demand.

Potassium chloride/potassium carbonate/calcium formate/iodide

1. Potassium chloride: The price of potassium chloride is going down, but its support still exists, so don't be overly pessimistic about being bearish or short. The border trade market has dropped significantly. The subsequent import situation will be closely watched. Sales of potassium sulfate have been poor, sulfuric acid has dropped slightly in some areas, and although processing enterprises continue to suffer losses, there is a possibility of a slight price drop. Replenish as needed.

2.Formic acid has been continuously falling. Earlier improved shipments brought inventories back to a reasonable range, supporting the bottom of the market; But downstream consumption is weak during the off-season, lacking upward momentum, and prices are expected to consolidate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to stock up carefully based on demand.

3.Iodide prices remained stable this week compared to last week.