Overall Market Highlight

After the holiday, prices of some inorganic salt products have adjusted: sodium selenite rose due to tightened supply of crude selenium; orders for monohydrate manganese sulfate weakened; calcium iodate declined as imported iodine prices fell. Zinc sulfate monohydrate dropped, while zinc sulfate heptahydrate, ferrous sulfate, activated zinc oxide, and cobalt chloride remained stable in quotation.

Next week's focus: On the macro level, monitor the impact of U.S. inflation data on non-ferrous metal prices; on the industry level, closely watch the resumption pace and order status of zinc salt producers after the holiday.

Week-on-week change: Month-on-month change:

	Unit	Week 5 of September	Week 1 of October	Week-on-week change	Average price in September	Average price as of October 9	Month-on-month change	September 23 current price
Shanghai Metals Market #Zinc Ingots	Yuan per ton	26422	26050	↓372	26582	26050	↓532	25880
Shanghai Metals Market #Electrolytic Copper	Yuan per ton	111175	112005	↑830	110387	112005	↑1618	111390
Shanghai Metals Market Australia Mn46% manganese ore	Yuan per ton	43.05	43.05	-	43.05	43.05	↑0.20	43.05
Business Society Import Refined Iodine Price	Yuan per ton	635000	635000	-	635000	635000	-	635000
Shanghai Metals Market Cobalt Chloride (co≥24.2%)	Yuan per ton	72500	69205	↓3295	79595	69205	↓10390	68000
Shanghai Metals Market Selenium Dioxide	Yuan per kilogram	115.0	115.5	↑0.5	114.43	115.5	↑1.07	116
Titanium dioxide manufacturer capacity utilization rate	%	72.27	73.38	↑1.11	71.96	73.38	↑1.42

Zinc sulfate

Raw materials: Significant regional price differences in sulfuric acid, with shortages of high-content supplies such as secondary zinc oxide, lead, and indium, keeping transaction coefficients at high levels.

Supply side: Orders are scheduled through early November; operating rate is 47%, down 3% month-on-month; capacity utilization stands at 44%, unchanged from previous levels.

Demand side: Feed and livestock producers have completed their pre-festival procurement, resulting in no new demand in the short term; with the arrival of the peak season for fertilizer use in autumn, special fertilizer companies in southern regions are resuming production, boosting demand in the fertilizer sector; on the export front, high shipping freight rates are suppressing new order placements.

Macro factors: The Federal Reserve has sent hawkish signals, with expectations of interest rate hikes disrupting the broader non-ferrous metals market; high shipping freight rates continue to constrain foreign trade transactions.

Price outlook: Post-holiday quotations remain stable for now; if freight rates continue to rise, it may disrupt transactions and prices.

Manganese sulfate

Raw materials: Manganese ore prices remain stable at high levels; sulfuric acid markets vary by region

Supply side: Order cycle is 25–30 days, down by 10 days compared to the previous period, with weak order intake following earlier price increases; operating rate stands at 94%, down 6% from the prior period, and capacity utilization is 75%, slightly down by 1%.

Demand side: Feed and livestock producers have completed pre-holiday procurement, with no new demand in the short term; the fertilizer sector is entering its autumn peak season, with resumption of production at special fertilizers factories in southern regions boosting demand; exports remain weak due to high shipping freight costs, resulting in limited new order bookings.

Macro factors: Expectations of Fed rate hikes have weighed on the metals sector; high shipping costs are affecting the release of foreign trade orders.

Price outlook: With weakening order support, the market may continue to decline.

Ferrous sulfate

Raw materials: The price of ferrous sulfate heptahydrate remains high and firm, providing strong cost support.

Supply side: Operating rate remains unchanged at 50%, while capacity utilization slightly declined by 1% to 10%; order backlog has been scheduled through early November, indicating strong order support.

Demand side: No new demand has been released in the short term.

Macro factors: The overall metal market volatility has limited impact on ferrous sulfate, with market trends more dependent on domestic order conditions.

Price outlook: Supported by both costs and orders, prices are expected to rise.

Copper sulfate/basic copper chloride

On the supply side, the core reason for copper's resilience lies in the mining sector. Recently, safety incidents have occurred frequently at Codelco's mines in Chile, the Centinela strike continues, and mediation at Escondida remains unresolved. Copper concentrate spot processing fees have dropped to a record low of -230 dollars per dry ton, putting significant loss pressure on smelters, thus providing strong cost support.

Demand side: Downstream copper manufacturers are facing slim profit margins on finished products, leading to low acceptance of high-priced scrap copper. Most maintain only essential purchases, with some even slowing down their procurement pace, resulting in overall sluggish trading activity in the scrap copper market.

1) Current price trend

On a macro level, weak U.S. non-farm data has significantly cooled expectations for Fed rate hikes, putting pressure on the dollar and providing some support to copper prices. However, rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions and lingering inflation concerns continue to constrain upside potential. Currently, the copper market is in a tug-of-war: futures are supported by supply from mines, while spot prices face downward pressure from weak downstream demand. We recommend closely monitoring the progress of copper mill resumption and raw material consumption, and flexibly adjusting sales timing according to individual funding conditions.

Suggestion: In the short term, copper prices are likely to remain volatile at high levels, with a projected range of 109,000–113,000 yuan per ton. The potential for scrap copper price recovery and actual trading volume deserve close attention.

Magnesium sulfate/magnesium oxide

In terms of raw materials, the magnesium market weakened and diverged this week: magnesium sulfate declined significantly, while magnesium oxide remained stable. Magnesium sulfate recorded the largest drop among small chemical products. The rationale behind the price cut in magnesium sulfate includes three factors: first, cost pressures have collapsed—sulfur prices have fallen from their highs, October international contract prices were sharply reduced, the "golden September" for sulfuric acid failed to materialize, and acid prices in many regions dropped to year-low levels. As a result, both sulfur-based and ore-based acid production temporarily turned unprofitable, leading to simultaneous reductions in raw material and processing costs for the sulfuric acid method, titanium dioxide, and desulfurization by-product routes.

Second, the supply side is loose, as the processing cost of by-product magnesium sulfate is significantly lower than that of salt lake brine extraction. With ample production capacity, suppliers are actively lowering prices to clear inventory, and low-priced supplies are flooding the mainstream market.

Third, demand has entered a lull period, with autumn fertilizer purchases winding down and winter storage yet to begin. Agricultural magnesium fertilizers—accounting for over half of total consumption—are experiencing a procurement gap, while construction materials and flame retardants have weakened as temperatures drop. Downstream buyers are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, favoring buying on rising prices rather than falling ones, leading to sluggish trading. Compounding this, magnesium sulfate prices have remained more than 50% higher than the same period last year for several consecutive months, creating inherent downward pressure from elevated levels. The combination of declining costs and weak demand is the main driver behind this week’s accelerated price decline. On the magnesium oxide side, the electric-fused magnesia price index remains stable, and although magnesium ingot prices have slightly softened, cost support remains firm. Procurement advice: take advantage of the pullback in magnesium sulfate prices to replenish inventory gradually; purchase magnesium oxide as needed, locking in volumes at stable prices if possible, but avoid large-scale stockpiling.

Calcium iodate

This week, the iodine market remained stable at high levels, with cost support still firm. The main reason is the high concentration of refined iodine supply and tight overseas sources, keeping the benchmark iodine price narrowly fluctuating near its one-year high, lacking downward momentum. Calcium iodate production has been steady with low inventory, leading to stable pricing and smooth cost transmission. On the demand side, downstream feed manufacturers have maintained a steady procurement pace—neither significantly increasing nor declining—indicating stable essential demand. In terms of trend, refined iodine is likely to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, while calcium iodate prices are well supported with limited room for decline; attention should be paid to overseas iodine ore shipments and import arrivals. Procurement advice: consider moderate stockpiling and price locking for calcium iodate, and secure long-term contracts early when refined iodine remains firm.

Sodium selenite

This week, the selenium market continued its weak consolidation with sluggish trading. The underperformance stems from weak supply and demand dynamics: on the supply side, selenium powder mainly comes as a by-product of copper smelting, with relatively stable sources; upstream output remains low, leading to tight market availability. On the demand side, downstream demand is lackluster, with few inquiries, causing some selenium dioxide holders to refrain from quoting proactively. On the cost front, prices for crude selenium and selenium dioxide remain generally stable, without clear direction, keeping market sentiment cautious. In terms of trend, short-term sideways movement is expected, lacking momentum for breakout, so attention should be paid to the pace of by-product release from copper smelters and downstream restocking intentions. Purchase advice: buy only as needed, avoid large advance stockpiling, and monitor fluctuations in crude selenium and selenium dioxide prices to opportunistically replenish small quantities.

Cobalt chloride

The cobalt market remained weak this week following the holiday, with cobalt salt prices continuing to decline steadily. This is due to a double blow from "weak demand and falling costs": on the demand side, producers of ternary precursors and cobalt oxide maintained only essential purchases, while post-holiday spot orders significantly pressured prices; consumer electronics orders showed no signs of recovery, resulting in extremely low procurement willingness. On the cost side, import prices for cobalt intermediates, raw material pricing factors, and MHP cobalt coefficients all remain at historical lows, weakening cost support and creating room for smelters to lower prices to secure sales. This has triggered a negative cycle: price drops lead to losses, which prompt raw material compression, further lowering costs, then prompting more price reductions. Supply-wise, September's cobalt chloride output declined noticeably month-on-month, with shutdowns and production cuts expanding, and previously planned restarts turning into cautious观望. In the short term, the trend remains bearish， and if intermediate product quotes continue to fall， cobalt salts may face additional downward pressure. Procurement advice: manage cobalt purchases prudently according to needs—avoid chasing low prices or stockpiling—and wait for clear signals of demand recovery.

Potassium chloride/potassium carbonate/calcium formate/iodide

1. Potassium Chloride: This week, potassium chloride prices declined again after the holiday, with the supply-demand imbalance showing no signs of improvement. The main reason is that supply continues to increase while demand remains sluggish: port inventories have accumulated to historically high levels for this time of year, and imported potassium is still arriving steadily according to shipping schedules. Supply is concentrated among major traders, who are maintaining firm pricing amid the post-holiday market sentiment. Meanwhile, downstream compound fertilizer plants have significantly lower operating rates compared to the same period last year. With the end of autumn fertilization season, end-user demand has weakened, leading to a "buy-as-you-go" approach in raw material procurement, resulting in stagnant market transactions. Border trade contracts for October have yet to be signed, and expectations regarding large-scale contracts and new import quotas remain uncertain, contributing to a cautious market mood. The overall trend of strong supply and weak demand persists, making short-term weakness likely to continue. Key factors to monitor include the pace of large contract signings, volume of incoming imports, and the timing of winter stockpiling. Procurement advice: purchase based on actual needs, lock in volumes gradually at lower prices, but avoid chasing falling prices or accumulating inventory.

2.This week, calcium formate costs initially declined and then rebounded, while product prices remained generally stable. The reason is that before the holiday, raw material formic acid prices fell continuously due to accumulated inventory and manufacturers' concentrated inventory clearance. After the holiday, low-price selling ceased as producers shifted toward supporting prices, causing formic acid prices to halt their decline and slightly recover, thereby temporarily easing cost pressures. However, formic acid prices remain significantly lower year-on-year, providing only weak overall support for calcium formate costs. On the supply side, manufacturers are operating normally with sufficient supplies, and price differences between brands and regions persist. On the demand side, downstream feed enterprises are mainly placing small orders based on immediate needs, resulting in average trading activity. In terms of trend, prices are expected to consolidate sideways in the short term, with close attention needed on changes in formic acid manufacturer inventories and the pace of downstream demand recovery. Procurement advice: purchase according to actual needs; leverage the low formic acid prices to negotiate volume discounts, and secure small batches at fixed prices for essential requirements.